Science, Strategy and War The Strategic Theory of ... - Boekje Pienter

exist only because they are open. They feed on the flux of matter and energy coming to themfrom the outside world. We can isolate a crystal, but cities and cells die when cut off fromtheir environment. They form an integral part of the world from which they can drawsustenance, and they cannot be separated from the fluxes that they incessantly transform.The non-linearity of natureIt was obvious that this was not a linear process but highly non-linear. Far-fromequilibrium,the system’s flow processes are interlinked through multiple feedback loops andthe corresponding mathematical equations are non-linear. The farther a dissipative structureis from equilibrium, the greater its complexity and the higher is the degree of non-linearity inthe mathematical equations describing it 12 .Out of these development, chaos theory emerged in the eighties as a popularconcept which focuses on thoroughly unstable regions and on non-linearity of systemsbehavior. It reflects the recognition that non-linear phenomena dominate much more of theinanimate world than we had thought, and that they are an essential aspect of the networkpatterns of living systems. It absorbs many of the former systems theoretical insights into atheory of cause and effect, albeit a radically different one from Newtonian cause and effectrelationships. In the Newtonian paradigm the discovery of non-linear relationships would beimmediately ‘linearized’, in other words, replaced by linear approximations. The equations ofclassical science deal with small oscillations, shallow waves, small changes in temperature etc.In the world of linear equations we thought we knew that systems described by simpleequations behaved in simple ways, while those described by complicated equations behavedin complicated ways. In the non-linear world, simple deterministic equations may produce anunsuspected richness and variety of behavior. On the other hand, complex and seeminglychaotic behavior can give rise to ordered structures, to subtle and beautiful patterns.Chaos theory describes the specific range of irregular behaviors in a system thatmoves or change 13 . The thrust of chaos theory is that small inputs in a closed system mayproduce large, unpredictable consequences, and that these systems may jump from orderedstates to chaotic states based on those small inputs. This feature is the consequence of thefrequent occurrence of self-reinforcing feedback processes. In that chaos operates in a closedsystem, it does not, as is commonly thought, describe a non-deterministic phenomenon. Infact, the whole point to chaos theory is that the fate of the system is determined by smallfactors which become magnified over time. It is the fact that these factors are too many, andtoo small to know, that cause the system to be unpredictable. The behavior of chaoticsystems is not merely random but shows a deeper level of patterned order. Advances incomputer technology as well as new mathematical techniques appearing in the 1970s and1980s enabled scientists to make these underlying patterns visible in distinct shape.The philosophical thrust of chaos theory is that uncertainty can be caused by smallchanges which, even if these changes are anticipated, results in an unpredictable system. Thisdoes not mean that the behavior of the system is totally unpredictable. Long term trends canbe distilled with a certain level of probability, the range of change can to some extend beestimated. However, the Sensitivity to Initial Conditions (SIC) of many systems does force oneto shift from a quantitive towards a qualitative analysis 14 . Long term predictions however are12 Horgan, p.182.13 Glenn E. James, Chaos Theory: The Essentials for Military Applications (Naval War College Press,Newport R.I., 1995), p.3.14 Capra (1996), p.123.126