Science, Strategy and War The Strategic Theory of ... - Boekje Pienter

All theories are being subjected to variation and selection, according to criteria which arethemselves subject to variation and selection. The whole process resembles biologicalevolution. A problem is like an ecological niche, and a theory is like a gene or a species whichis being tested for viability in that niche. Variant of theories, like genetic mutations, arecontinually being created, and less successful variants become extinct when more successfulvariants take over. “Success” is the ability to survive repeatedly under selective pressures -criticism - brought to bear in that niche, and the criteria for that criticism depend partly onthe physical characteristics of the niche and partly on the attributes of other genes andspecies (i.e. other ideas) that are already present there. As David Deutsch explains, both inscience and in biological evolution, evolutionary success depends on the creation andsurvival of objective knowledge. The ability of a theory or gene to survive in a niche is not ahaphazard function of its structure but depends on whether enough true and usefulinformation about the niche is implicitly or explicitly encoded there 26 .Here Boyd found reinforcement, and additional insight, in Dawkins’ work. Boydowned no less than two copies of The Selfish Gene, in addition to Dawkins other famousbooks The Extended Phenotype and The Blind Watchmaker. Dawkins introduced the term“meme” as the cultural replicator. Memes are the vehicle for cultural evolution just as muchas the genes are the vehicles for genetic evolution. Memes should be regarded as livingstructures, not just metaphorically but technically. Ideas replicate like genes and survive,mutate or become ignored and extinct. They are entities that are capable of being transmittedfrom one brain to another and can be considered a virus of the brain. Popper in particular,according to Dawkins, illuminated the analogy between scientific progress and geneticevolution by natural selection 27 .Interestingly, Dawkins even advances the element of time-based competition,adding another element of similarity between Boyd’s theory and evolutionary epistemology.As in computers, in brains time and storage space are precious Dawkins asserts. Thecomputer in which memes live are human brains. Time is possibly even a more importantlimiting factor than storage space, and it is the subject of heavy competition. The humanbrain, and the body that it controls, cannot do more than one or a few things at once. If ameme is to dominate the attention of the human brain, it must do so at the expense of“rival” memes. This provides an understanding of Boyd’s perception of the role andbehavior of strategic theories and military doctrines. They are like memes, they compete withother memes, and survive depending on the contribution they make to the host’s survivaland on the outcome of the contest with other memes 28 .Polanyi and the tacit dimensionGjertsen delivered an interesting critique. He points out that theories can be forgotten andrevived, several theories can co-exist, and they may survive for social reasons, throughpropaganda, censorship, and other political tools. Alternatively, they may die out not becausethey are unfit, but through stupidity, prejudice, and corruption. Fit theories can die and unfittheories survive. Theories can be dismissed in an era and lie dormant for a long while, unlike26 David Deutsch, The Fabric of Reality (Penguin Books, London, 1998), p.69. See chapter 3 in particularon the relevance of Popper. For an assessment of the current value of Popper see chapter 13.27 Richard Dawkins, The Selfish Gene (Oxford University Press, Oxford, paperback edition 1989), p.190.See entire chapter 11 for a full explanation of the idea of meme. An interesting observation at thispoint may be that the OODA loop itself has proven to be a very powerful meme indeed if thenumber of citations is any measure of success as Dawkins proposes.28 Ibid, p.197.85