Science, Strategy and War The Strategic Theory of ... - Boekje Pienter

This overview, despite being far from exhaustive, offers a representative overview ofstudies in which authors of varying backgrounds have attempted to apply insights of nonlinearitychaos theory and complexity theory to the social realm, in the belief that thesedevelopments were indeed relevant for understanding social phenomena and could improveupon the reductionist mode of analysis. While Boyd was only familiar with some of the earlystudies, both early and more recent works show consistency in the themes and ideas thatthey advance: uncertainty and unpredictability; hierarchies and networks of subsystems; avariety of connections between subsystems; the pervasiveness of non-linear dynamics; thefocus on cognitive processes, learning, and the function of schemata; the requirement ofvariety, the requirement and determinants of adaptability under uncertainty, the merits ofcellular organization structure, etc. Combined, they offer view of armed forces, or indeed, social systems,operating as Complex Adaptive Systems in the non-linear environment of war.And indeed, they argue that warfare is a nonlinear phenomenon with two or moreco-evolving, adapting competitors. The actions of every agent in the conflict, from individualpilots and infantrymen to numbered air forces and corps, and up to the political leadership,influence and shape the environment. Environmental changes in turn cause adaptations in allhierarchical levels of the warring parties. As both allied and enemy actions influence theenvironment, warfare involves the co-evolution of all involved parties. Friction, uncertaintyand unpredictability reign and are irremovable from war 172 .The literature suggest that indeed insights from systems theory, chaos theory andcomplexity theory are also relevant for understanding the behavior of economic, financial,industrial, transportation and other social and technical systems. Furthermore the literaturesuggests that the international political arena of states forms a complex system and war is anon-linear phenomenon. Finally, as management literature suggests, commercialorganizations can be open, chaotic and/or complex systems too, and by extension, so canarmed forces, a fact noted by an increasing number of authors. Subsequently, Boyd’sapplication of insights of dynamic processes in chemical and biological systems to the socialarena was not only very fruitful, it offers him important insights, but it was also warranted.172 The literature on military applications of chaos and complexity Theory has burgeoned in thenineties. To illustrate this, an inventory of articles dealing with Nonlinearity and Military Affairs drawnup by the US National Defense University in July, 1999 listed 144 entries. See www.clausewitz.com. Forsome accessible papers see for instance Glenn E. James, Chaos Theory, The Essentials for MilitaryApplications (Naval War College Press, Newport, 1996); Linda Beckerman, ‘The Non-linear Dynamicsof War’, www.belisarius.com/modern _business_strategy/beckerman/non_linear.htm date visited 4/27/99 (thisarticle, though technical, is often referred to. It is particularly good on the notions of fitness landscapeand bifurcation. She regards attrition style warfare as a linear process and, interestingly, refers toBoyd’s OODA loop as a model which captures the dynamics of non-linear systems); and Tanner,Jason B., Walter E. Lavrinovich, and Scott R. Hall: ‘Looking at Warfare Through a New Lens’, MarineCorps Gazette, Vol. 82, Iss.9, September 1998, pp. 59-61; David S. Alberts and Thomas Czerwinski,Complexity, Global Politics, and National Security (National Defence University Press, Washington, D.C.,1998); and Thomas J. Czerwinski, Coping with the Bounds, Speculations on Nonlinearity in Military Affairs(National Defence University Press, Washington, D.C., 1999). For a recent study relating Clausewitzto chaos see Stephen J. Cimbala, Clausewitz and Chaos, Friction in War and Military Policy (Preager,Westport, Connecticut, 2001), in particular chapters 1 and 7.165