Science, Strategy and War The Strategic Theory of ... - Boekje Pienter

thing any system is constantly facing and trying to reduce. As Boyd argues in the openingpiece of A Discourse, for Boyd uncertainty prevails and is inherent in any system. It isunavoidable and insurmountable. This insight led Boyd to make uncertainty the nucleus fordeveloping theories about conflict. He turns uncertainty into a weapon. Besides the fact thatthe opponent probably experiences uncertainty because of a time lag between observation,analysis and action, through lack of time to digest all available information or through lessthan optimal sensors, uncertainty can also be magnified deliberately by creating ambiguity.Contradictory information, feints and deception are familiar tools for achieving this. Boydrestated them, adding that multiple and various actions simultaneously or during nonstandardintervals (in addition to security and deception) prevent one to become predictable.That way, as just stated, there is no pattern in one’s behavior (across the physical, mental andmoral dimensions) to recognize and if there are patterns, one changes them or alternatesbetween them. Variety with uncertainty thus causes ambiguity.This ties in with Boyd’s conviction that we should create mismatches. Time, rhythmand tempo are merely levers for creating mismatches. At the operational level, Boyd speaksof severely disrupting the adversary’s combat operation process used to develop and executehis initial and subsequent campaign plans. This disruption occurs by rapidly and repeatedlypresenting the enemy with a combination of ambiguous, but threatening events anddeceptive, but non-threatening ones. This “out-looping” of the opponent, these multipleevents, compressed in time, this manipulation of friction, creating uncertainty and promotingambiguity, it all leads to the emergence of mismatches or anomalies, between those actionsthe opponent believes to threaten his survival and those which actually do. Going into theOODA-loop these mismatches feed back into the system to create an increase in mismatchin the next OODA cycle. Repeated and reinforced mismatches lead to a yawning gapbetween perception and reality of the strategic environment. The opponent has becomeisolated. This can also be effectuated by manipulating the social environment the opponentoperates in. Isolation also occurs if the social environment becomes hostile to the aims andactions of the opponent, negating him support he may be dependent upon.The enemy must eliminate these mismatches between perception and reality if hisreactions are to remain relevant-- that is, if he is to survive. He must attempt to re-establishinteraction with the environment. One’s operational aim should be to ensure the opponentcannot rid himself of these menacing anomalies by hampering his ability to processinformation, make decisions, and take appropriate action. In consequence, he can no longerdetermine what is being done to him and how he should respond. Ultimately, the adversary’sinitial confusion will degenerate into paralyzing panic, and his ability and/or willingness toresist will cease. Alternatively, he his rendered powerless because he is splintered and unableto cohere. His system has become a closed one in stead of an open system, and closedsystems are incapable of adaptation. At the strategic and grand strategic levels other elementsare added, such as shaping the political and societal environment through creating a unifyingvision, dissolving the opponent’s moral fiber, destroying internal harmony, disorienting hismental images, attracting the uncommitted and weakening the abonds between the opponentand his allies, etc. Interaction and isolation are the key terms Boyd coins for this dynamic at themost abstract level.The narrow interpretation of the OODA loop also deemphasizes another essentialfeature of Boyd’s theory: developing, maintaining and reshaping one’s orientation, the box aroundwhich the loop graphically revolves. First of all, speed, or rather tempo, is not very useful ifone cannot adequately react on incoming information or one’s interpretation of events isflawed. Orientation shapes the way we interact with the environment. It determines how andwhat we observe, decide and act. It determines the character of the present OODA loops276