SODBatch A&B SPM Comments co-chair response final ... - ipcc-wg3

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IPCC WGIII Fourth Assessment Report, Second Order Draft
dealing with carbon leakage than with oil prices, so including both
topics equally under the line "recent literature confirms the
conclusions of the TAR" would not be accurate. It would make
sense to separate out "carbon leakage" and "oil prices" into two
separate sentences for making their respective comparisons to the
extent of new literature since the TAR. Sentences along the lines
of......
1) With respect to carbon leakage, not only does "recent literature
confirm the conclusions of the TAR" there are new findings
indicating that "widespread relocation is unlikely".
2) With respect to the effect of mitigation on oil prices, would
suggest referring directly to the underlying report that states
"literature has hardly advanced since the TAR" (pg. 76 line 46-47)
which is far from "confirming". To be consistent with the large
uncertainties, many assumptions made and relative lack of new
literature, would suggest the following change: "oil exporting
countries MAY expect lower oil price and GDP loss but results
depend STRONGLY on assumptions about Annex I policy and oil
exporting country response, and new findings indicate that
revenues from oil exports are now much higher than assumed in
earlier studies"
(Government of Environment Canada)
11 A 11 30 11 31 Will GDP loss be reduced or increased for oil-exporting countries?
The answer may seem clear but should be stated. Perhaps - "lower
oil prices, and GDP losses" would make the sentence clearer.
(Government of Australia)
11 B 11 31 11 31 … oil price and… SOME GDP loss ? (does "lower" apply to GDP
?)
(Jean-Pascal van YPERSELE, Université catholique de Louvain
(Belgium))
11 A 11 32 0 0 add uncertainty statement ((HM?)
(Rob Swart, MNP)
Expert Review of Second-Order-Draft
Confidential, Do Not Cite or Quote
Response suggested by cochairs
Action
for
chapter
Considerations
by the writing
team
See A-780 See revised
paras
(11)
ACC See revised
paras
(11)
ACC ACC See
revised paras
(11)
SPM- 11 A 11 32 11 32 add "However, various oil exporting countries have promoted Prefer A-780 Prefer revised
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