Chemical Agents of Opportunity for Terrorism: TICs & TIMs

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Chemical Agents of Opportunity for Terrorism Training Support Package Participant Guide Slide 6 Chemical Agents of Opportunity for Terrorism: TICs & TIMs Bhopal Disaster • Gas plume drifted over shanty - town exposing 250,000 people • Temperature inversion reduced plume dilution • Extent of risk: – Modeled mean MIC ambient concentration: 27 ppm (range 0.12 -85.6 ppm) – Median MIC concentration: 1.8 ppm – 30 minute Acute Emergency Guideline Level -3 (AEGL3) 0.40 ppm http:// www.bhopal.org/whathappened.html Module One – Toxic Industrial Gases as Terrorist Threats 6 Approximately 250,000 people were exposed to the MIC gas fume. A temperature inversion in the local area reduced the extent of a plume dilution effect that would have occurred under normal weather conditions. After the fact, modeling suggested a median air concentration of MIC of 1.8 ppm. This exceeded the AEGL-3 of 0.40 ppm which was the predicted airborne concentration above which people are likely to experience life threatening health effects or death. Temperature inversions occur when the temperature of the atmosphere increases with height. During a temperature inversion, warm air traps cool air below, acting like a lid. Pollutants below the inversion are trapped, allowing them to build up. In the Bhopal case the temperature inversion limited the usual dilutional effect of the chemical plume increasing the airborne concentration of the MIC. AEGLs are “acute exposure guideline levels” which have been developed for a number of chemicals. The modeled concentrations after this release were quite a bit above the threshold for devastating health effects, consistent with the actual events. The map on the slide depicts the modeled distribution of the methyl isocyanate plume following this release. The darker shading indicates higher gas concentration. The extent of heavy concentration represents the lack of dilutional effect from the temperature inversion and low wind speed. Note the extension in all directions with more prominence towards the south, also representing the effects of a low wind speed. December 2008 Version 2.0 Page 130
Chemical Agents of Opportunity for Terrorism Training Support Package Participant Guide Slide 7 Chemical Agents of Opportunity for Terrorism: TICs & TIMs Bhopal Disaster • 2500 fatalities within 1 week • Long term mortality estimated ≥ 6000 • Chronic disability for > 100,000 () – chronic pulmonary complaints – ocular inflammation Dhara et al, Arch Environ Health 2002; 57:391 -404 Module One – Toxic Industrial Gases as Terrorist Threats 7 The numbers of deaths and injuries from this disaster had never previously been seen from an industrial accident. Within the first week more than 2000 residents of Bhopal died from the acute toxic effects of this chemical release. Additional thousands died in the ensuing weeks and months. Long term pulmonary and eye injuries were thought to have affected at least 100,000 people. December 2008 Version 2.0 Page 131
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Chemical Agents of Opportunity for Terrorism: TICs & TIMs

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