Chemical Agents of Opportunity for Terrorism: TICs & TIMs

Chemical Agents of Opportunity for Terrorism
Training Support Package
Participant Guide
Slide 32
Chemical Agents of Opportunity for Terrorism:
TICs & TIMs
Module One - Chemical Contamination of Food, Water, and Medication
32
Several years ago, a terror attack using botulinum in the milk supply was modeled, as an
example of introducing a potent toxin into the food supply.
The California dairy industry was chosen because this system produces 20% of the nation’s
milk.
Instructor Note:
The pasteurized milk delivery system is characterized by the rapid distribution of 20 billion
gallons per year in the U.S. There have been previous infectious disease outbreaks in the dairy
industry including two natural Salmonella outbreaks, each infecting ~200,000 people.
The findings from this National Academy of Science mathematical model form the basis for the
next several slides.
The major focus for the discussion in this portion of the module is the extent of poisoning that
can occur with introduction of a small amount of a very toxic substance at the producer end of a
“bow-tie” supply chain. By extension, introduction of larger amounts of a less toxic substance at
the early part of the distribution side of the supply chain can have similar effects. This would be
the case for most industrial chemicals that would be introduced into the food supply.
Reference:
Wein LM, Liu Y.Analyzing a bioterror attack on the food supply: the case of botulinum toxin in
milk. Proc Natl Acad Sci 2005;102(28):9984-9989.
http://www.pnas.org/content/102/28/9984.full
December 2008 Version 2.0 Page 288