1.5 - About University

3.2T HE S IGMOID C URVE: ANTICIPATING ANDP REPARING FOR C HANGE D ESPITE C URRENT S UCCESSInspired by Charles Handy.Everything has its ups, downs, and plateaus. Nothing lasts forever, including success. So, tosucceed in the long term, leaders need to anticipate and start working toward a new future—strange as it may sound—even before that future actually begins to take shape. This tool providesa way of thinking about the future that cautions you not to take success for granted. Itsuggests the need to begin planning for change during times when things are on the upturn—be it of a product, service, investment, or even the success of your own leadership career!Consider these ups and downs: Apple Macintosh—a product’s ups and downs; the SovietEmpire—a country’s life cycle; romantic relationships—Shakespeare’s observation, “The courseof true love never did run smooth.”“A good life is probably a succession of sigmoid curves, each new curve started before the first curve fades.”—Charles Handy. THE AGE OF PARADOXSuch ups and downs can be illustrated by two intersecting curves, known as the SigmoidCurves. The word sigmoid means a double curve in an S shape.The Sigmoid CurveSuccessive Sigmoid CurvesABCurve A represents the current and projected life cycle. Notice that the curve has a slowstart, an acceleration to a plateau, and then a tailing off. The second curve represents a futuresuccess scenario. Like a booster rocket on a spacecraft, you must plan to jettison the first rocketand ignite the next, to take you into a new orbit. The trick is:➠➠➠to plan the abandonment of the first curve while things are still going well;to make the most of the first curve (curve A) before making a major commitment tothe second curve (curve B); andto realize that, for a while, new ideas need to coexist with the old.The fact that you are reading this book probably means you are somewhere on curve Alooking for improvement, possibly to your own career. The appropriate place to start thinkingabout the second curve is while you are still approaching the peak of curve A (i.e., while youare still ascending on the curve). For most people, however, real energy for change comes onlywhen they are looking disaster in the face (e.g., being laid off, failing to meet a business goal,Reprinted by permission of Harvard Business School Press. From The Age of Paradox by Charles Handy. Boston MA.1994, pp, 52. Copyright 1994 by Charles Handy.SECTION 3 TOOLS FOR STRATEGIC THINKING 73