1.5 - About University

6.2A SSUMPTION A NALYSIS: TESTING D ECISIONSBY E XAMINING T HEIR U NDERLYING B IASESInspired by Ralph Kilmann.Leaders can improve their decision making by first outlining options for action, then examiningthe assumptions held by supporters of these options. This tool will help you surface andchallenge your own and other people’s assumptions, as a way of ensuring quality of decisionsin complex and dynamic business environments.Step ➊Agree on optionsfor action.➟Step ➋Form optiongroups.➟➟❑❑State two or more distinct options for action.Organize people into subgroups that support each option.➟ ➟ ➟ ➟Step ➌For each optiongroup:Step ➍Work with allgroups as a whole.Step ➎Strive for synthesisamong options.Step ➏Test the final,agreed-uponoption for action.➟➟➟➟❑❑❑❑❑❑❑❑List the stakeholder groups: those with a vested interest in each unique option.Briefly summarize the wants, needs, and expectations of each stakeholder group.List assumptions held by each stakeholder group (i.e., “What assumptions would have tobe true for each stakeholder group to maximize their support for each option?”).State each assumption in a form that maximizes support for your option, no matter howobvious or ridiculous it may seem.Quantify the importance and plausibility of each assumption. Identify the mostimportant and most uncertain assumption (i.e., the critical region in the assumptionmatrix).Each option group shares its stakeholder list, and assumptions about each stakeholdergroup. Others are encouraged to challenge, ask questions, and discuss theseassumptions; assumptions are thus surfaced and modified.Resolve issues that remain among options. One method is to form a number ofsynthesis subgroups to see which of these subgroups can come up with the bestsynthesis of the remaining options.Verify the final option or decision, possibly through methods such as survey research,questions to other leaders, interviews with customers, and so on.SECTION 6 TOOLS FOR CRITICAL THINKING AND INNOVATION 173