1.5 - About University

7.6 P OTENTIAL P ROBLEM A NALYSIS:D EALING WITH R ISK TO A P LANInspired by Ben Tregoe and Charles Kepner.The purpose of Potential Problem Analysis is to protect a plan. By plan, we mean an established,methodical process for carrying out any project. Every plan involves some risk ofunforeseen or unexpected roadblocks and the plan can be analyzed to anticipate them. Thistool shows how to protect a plan in a systemic way. Before outlining the seven steps ofPotential Problem Analysis, we describe some terms used therein.Probability refers to the likelihood of a problem occurring. Using an airline example, theprobability of an accident occurring is near takeoff and landing rather than in flight; therefore,more energy and planning would go into takeoff and landing stages of a flight plan.Seriousness refers to the impact of the problem if and when it does occur. An incident maybe highly probable, but not at all serious in its impact on the plan; or it could be highlyimprobable, but totally disastrous if it does occur.Preventive actions are those actions you take to prevent problems from ever occurring. Foran airline, for example, preventive actions include safety audits, regular maintenance ofaircraft, and frequent use of pilot simulators for training.Contingent actions involve minimizing the damage if, despite effort, problems occur anyway.Again, using the airline example, contingent actions include emergency exits, emergencylanding procedures, and disaster planning.The steps of Potential Problem Analysis are:❶SuccessStatement➟ ➟➋Isolate theKey PlanSteps➌List thePotentialProblems✔ The best way to start a Potential Problem Analysis is to have a clear statement of success.[☛ 2.7 Goal Statements]➟✔ Key steps are critical in those situations in which large numbers of people are involved, or thereare possible negative consequences, or you are using untried methods.➟ A word of caution: Potential Problem Analysis can get out of hand if you spend more time and energythan justifiable and the plan doesn’t get executed for fear of incidents!➟✔ For each key step, list the potential problems that might occur; i.e., “What could go wrong at thisstep?”A group can brainstorm this list, leading to a focus on the most serious potential problems.[☛ 6.9 Brainstorming]➟SECTION 7 TOOLS FOR PROBLEM SOLVING, DECISION MAKING, AND QUALITY 219