transport of dangerous goods and risk management - Kirilo Savić

TRANSPORT OF DANGEROUS GOODS AND RISK MANAGEMENT 106A preliminary hazard analysis should enable the determination of the potential hazards that has the greatest negativeimpact on the protected value at a given moment or at estimated time 5) . Preliminary hazard analysis should result inthe graph (Figure 4) that allows visual monitoring of the size of risk. (Sizes in the horizontal section relates to thenumber of potential hazards in Table 2) 4) .Figure 3. The results of the preliminary hazard analysisRISK ANALYSISRisk analysis refers to the understanding of potential dangers (hazards). Methodology of integrated risk assessmentprovides a complete and accurate developed criteria for determining the probability of occurrence of the negativeevents and the size of the impact it can cause.Starting from the definition that risk is the likelihood that potential danger (hazard) will turn into a potentiallydangerous event and cause negative effects on protected values, it is necessary to establish criteria for determiningthe probability and consequences of events 8) .Probability (P) is a combination of the frequency of certain events and the vulnerability of the organization 5) bysome potential dangers (Matrix 1.).Gradation of probability is done as follows:1 - Impossible, 2-Unlikely, 3-Likely, 4 - Almost certainly, 5 - CertainlyThe probability is determined by the form: P = F # V .................................................................................... (1)Frequency (F) refers to the repetition of negative events in a specific time period (T1) or to the time exposure ofthe protected value to the potential danger in a particular time (T2) 4) .Gradation of frequency is done as follows:1 - Very rarely, 2 - Occasionally, 3 - Often, 4 - Predominantly, 5 - Very often - T1 or1 - Negligible, 2 - Occasional, 3 - Long, 4 - Predominantly, 5 - Permanent - T2Vulnerability (V) is the current state of protection of the organization or sensitivity to the potential danger of theorganization 5) .Gradation of vulnerability is performed as follows:1 - Very large, 2 - Large, 3 - Average, 4 - Small, 5 - Very Small