2003 IMTA Proceedings - International Military Testing Association

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typically plans to stay until retirement. To better understand the relationship of training and
development and the retention of captains, a logistic regression analysis was conducted. This
paper describes the analysis and results.
METHOD
Officer and NCO data collectors were trained in conducting focus groups and
administering surveys. They were provided with a sampling plan, and asked to gather data from
a representative group of officers, warrant officers, and NCOs. They collected data from Army
personnel and spouses worldwide. Approximately 13,500 soldiers and spouses provided data
through focus groups, interviews, or surveys.
Participants in the Officer Comprehensive survey were 5,525 officers, warrant officers,
and NCOs, from both active and reserve components. Data collectors distributed the instrument
in June 2000 to groups of participants. Of the 1,548 captains who responded to the officer
survey, 1,296 provided complete information, and comprised the sample used in the logistic
regression described below.
Logistic regression is a type of regression analysis in which the dependent variable is
dichotomous. In this case, logistic regression estimates the odds of intent to stay in the Army
and the odds of intent to leave before retirement, based on a set of predictor variables. The result
of this analysis provides insight into the characteristics of captains who have indicated that they
are planning to leave prior to retirement.
Dependent variable. The dependent variable for this analysis was career intention. This
variable is intended to reflect whether the captain plans to leave the Army before retirement.
Career intention was determined by creating a dichotomous variable with 1=leaving and
0=staying, which was computed based on officers’ responses to two survey items.
Independent Variables. Both demographic and survey items were investigated as
possible predictors of officers’ intent to leave. The following demographic items were included:
months in current position, number of deployments, number of PCS moves, type of unit, gender,
rank, source of commission, ethnicity, career field, branch, functional area, highest echelon of
command, Combat Training Center (CTC) experience, and length of time as an officer.
A collinearity analysis suggested that rank, length of time as an officer, and number of
PCS moves were strongly correlated with one another. The model including the variable “length
of time as an officer” was selected as having the best fit of the three.
Due to the long list of potentially important demographic variables, a step-wise logistic
regression was conducted to determine which demographic variables were better predictors of
intent to leave than others. Those demographic variables that contributed the most to the model
were retained for the subsequent analyses. Retained demographic variables include: CTC
experience, years as an officer, source of commission, gender, and months in current position.
45 th Annual Conference of the International Military Testing Association
Pensacola, Florida, 3-6 November 2003