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2003 IMTA Proceedings - International Military Testing Association

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and compared with the number found for total exam passers. The number of passers by<br />

paygrade also is determined. The total number of passers by paygrade is compared to the total<br />

passers by duty group and the total exam passers. The same procedure is performed for<br />

projecting exam takers as well. Exam-taker projections are used by NETPDTC for scheduling<br />

tasks.<br />

An increase in exam takers was expected from 2002 to <strong>2003</strong>. The number of projected takers<br />

was 110,193. The actual number of exam takers was 112,056, which was a 10% increase from<br />

the September 2002 advancement exam. In analyzing where the increase of exam takers actually<br />

occurred, it was determined the majority of the increase came from paygrade E4. There were<br />

1,640 more E4 exam takers than expected. Refer to figure 2.<br />

CANDIDATES ( In thousands )<br />

65<br />

60<br />

55<br />

50<br />

45<br />

40<br />

35<br />

30<br />

25<br />

20<br />

15<br />

MARCH <strong>2003</strong> ACTUAL VERSUS PROJECTED EXAM<br />

TAKERS BY PAYGRADE<br />

E5<br />

E6<br />

E4<br />

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2001 2002 <strong>2003</strong><br />

MARCH EXAM CYCLES<br />

PROJECTED E5 EXAM TAKERS<br />

52,151<br />

ACTUAL E5 EXAM TAKERS<br />

52,067<br />

PROJECTED E6 EXAM TAKERS<br />

30,763<br />

ACTUAL E6 EXAM TAKERS<br />

30,713<br />

ACTUAL E4 EXAM TAKERS<br />

29,276<br />

PROJECTED E4 EXAM TAKERS<br />

27,656<br />

Figure 2. Actual versus projected exam takers by paygrade for March <strong>2003</strong>.<br />

During the algorithm development it was found that starting in 2000 there was a significant<br />

difference between the number of candidates taking the March exams and the September exams.<br />

Due to this phenomenon, it was determined the algorithm would have to account for this<br />

disparity. Past history for March exams would be used to predict the number of candidates<br />

taking the upcoming March exam, and the same course of action would be used in predicting the<br />

number of candidates taking September exams. This phenomenon is showing signs of becoming<br />

less of a concern. Figure 3 shows the number of candidates taking March exams is once again<br />

coming closer to the number of candidates taking September exams.<br />

433<br />

45 th Annual Conference of the <strong>International</strong> <strong>Military</strong> <strong>Testing</strong> <strong>Association</strong><br />

Pensacola, Florida, 3-6 November <strong>2003</strong>

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