2003 IMTA Proceedings - International Military Testing Association

now exist. Therefore, we had to derive a unique methodology to depict the future working
environment.
Select21 has had the advantage of recent ARI research on future noncommissioned
officer requirements, Maximizing 21 st Century NCO Performance (NCO21; Ford, Campbell,
Campbell, Knapp, & Walker, 2000; Knapp et al., 2002; Knapp, McCloy, & Heffner, 2003). The
overarching goal of NCO21 was to identify personnel who are best suited for entry into and
progression through the NCO corps, despite future changes. The NCO21 research included a
futuristic job analysis that projected future job performance demands and critical KSAs.
Fortunately, the NCO21 analysis specifically included first-term soldiers. Select21 has been able
to use and to update the NCO21 products based on the recent views of the future captured under
the notion of transformation.
Validating projections of future KSAs is also a formidable challenge because of the
absence of performance measures. NCO21 faced this challenge, with results showing the
difficulty of obtaining scores that differentiate current performance from projections of future
performance. The NCO21 research, thus, emphasized the importance to Select21 of a broad
performance model, multiple measures reflecting the model, and including a focus on jobs that
both exist today and are likely to be characteristic of the future.
Select21 also considers more than job performance. The research takes into account the
total system change of the transformation that includes organizational operations and the overall
organizational lives of Soldiers. In addition to changes in job performance demands, system
change could add to requirements for increased personal and social skills and motivation.
Select21 seeks to provide a database capability for research on KSAs likely to influence
individual fit into the future Army and decisions to remain in the Army, using a personenvironment
fit model.
As subsequent papers will emphasize, expert judgment has been critical to formulations
of the future and to decisions about job performance dimensions, KSAs, and the measurement
process. Expert panels have ensured that the project tracks with transformation plans. Panels
have also provided direct reviews and judgments about task analysis products. We anticipate that
expert input will help guide recommendations for and actual product utilization.
Selection and Job Classification
The Select21 project capitalizes on the knowledge gleaned from the NCO21 research, but
it seeks to advance findings by investigating the possibility of providing measures useful for
assigning soldiers to jobs, as well as screening them for suitability for organizational entry. The
challenge here is to create KSA measures that are excellent predictors of the criteria and able to
make differential prediction for the well over 150 different jobs or military occupational
specialties (MOSs) to which Soldiers are assigned. To deal with this challenge, the research
sought to group MOSs viable for the future into clusters based on a principle of likely job
demand homogeneity.
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45 th Annual Conference of the International Military Testing Association
Pensacola, Florida, 3-6 November 2003