2003 IMTA Proceedings - International Military Testing Association

310
USING DECISION TREE METHODOLOGY TO PREDICT ATTRITION
WITH THE AIM
Wayne C. Lee
Department of Psychology
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
603 East Daniel Street
Champaign, IL 61820
wlee@s.psych.uiuc.edu
Dr. Fritz Drasgow
Department of Psychology
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
603 East Daniel Street
Champaign, IL 61820
fdrsagow@s.psych.uiuc.edu
This paper describes the Assessment of Individual Motivation (AIM) and efforts to use it
for predicting first-term attrition in the United States Army. This description provides a context
for the three papers presented in this symposium, including this one where the results of one
investigation are presented. In this first investigation, a non-linear, “configural” approach to
prediction is applied to examine whether we can improve on linear methods used to determine
the predictive validity of the AIM with respect to attrition in a 12-month time interval.
The AIM
Attrition is among the most studied of the organizationally relevant outcomes among
personnel researchers. One estimate as early as 1980 put the number of articles and book
chapters devoted to attrition between 1500 and 2000 (Muchinsky & Morrow, 1980). Certainly,
the popularity of this topic is due in part to the high cost associated with attrition in
organizations. Earlier research conducted by the U.S. Army Research Institute for the
Behavioral and Social Sciences (ARI) with the Assessment of Background and Life Experiences
(ABLE) suggested that temperament measures might indeed be good predictors of attrition in the
U.S. Army. Unfortunately, as with many temperament measures, concerns regarding the
potential effects of faking and coaching restricted the implementation of the ABLE in new
recruit selection (White, Young, & Rumsey, 2001).
Beginning in the mid-1990’s, this line of research was continued formally by ARI with
the development of the AIM. This new measure was designed specifically to target first-term
attrition while also being less susceptible to faking and coaching. The AIM is comprised of 27
items in a forced-choice format measuring 6 constructs. While “27 items” may seem like a small
number of items for any measure of multiple constructs, it is important to understand that each
item is comprised of four descriptive stems. Each of these stems –108 in all—could very easily
be presented as a single-item in Likert-type format. For each item in the AIM, two stems are
worded negatively and two are worded positively –representing low and high levels of a
particular construct, respectively, if a respondent endorses them.
45 th Annual Conference of the International Military Testing Association
Pensacola, Florida, 3-6 November 2003