Modelagem da dinâmica espacial como uma ... - mtc-m12:80 - Inpe

SPATIAL DYNAMIC MODELING AS A PLANNING TOOL:
SIMULATION OF URBAN LAND USE CHANGE
IN BAURU AND PIRACICABA (SP), BRAZIL
ABSTRACT
This work is committed to provide methodological guidelines for the simulation of
urban land use dynamics. Modeling experiments of urban land use change were
conducted for two medium-sized cities (Bauru and Piracicaba) located in the inland of
São Paulo State over time series of approximately thirty-five years. Land use transitions
were estimated using two different empirical probabilistic methods – the `weights of
evidence´ approach, based on Bayes´s theory, and logistic regression. The thereof
derived land use change probabilities drove a cellular automata model, built upon basis
of stochastic land use allocation algorithms. Socioeconomic and infrastructural factors
demonstrated to be the drivers of local land use change, whose logic is explained in the
light of economic theories of urban development and growth. The simulation outputs
were statistically validated according to a multiple resolution fitting procedure. After the
accomplishment of simulations for successive time cycles along the whole time series,
forecast simulations were carried out for stationary and non-stationary scenarios of
transition trends. The former ones were assessed through the Markov chain, while the
latter were obtained from linear regression models relating rates of land use change to
demographic data and economic performance indicators. Both types of forecast
scenarios were built for the short- and medium-term, respectively 2004 and 2007. And
finally, a due attention was drawn to possible extensions of this work throughout.
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