Reaching the marginalized: EFA global monitoring report, 2010; 2010

001CHAPTER 22Education for All Global Monitoring ReportOn currenttrends,710 million adultswill still lackbasic literacyskills in 2015.32. See note forFigure 2.35 for howthe literacy target hasbeen measured.Figure 2.33: Contrasting experiences in reducing illiteracyand the associated gender gap in four countriesAge illiteracy profile in selected countries, by age group and gender, 2007Illiteracy rates (%)Illiteracy rates (%)10080604020010080604020075-84 65-74 55-64 45-54 35-44 25-34 15-24Age groupsBangladesh, maleBangladesh, femaleIndia, femaleIndia, maleChina, femaleChina, male75-84 65-74 55-64 45-54 35-44 25-34 15-24Source: UIS database.Age groupsMorocco, femaleMorocco, maleindigenous-language speakers at 21% of adultscompared with 4% for Spanish-speakers (Cuetoet al., 2009). In South Asia, literacy gaps betweenlower and higher castes are pronounced. In Nepal,caste disparities are even larger than wealthand gender disparities (Nepal Ministry of Educationand Sports and UNESCO Kathmandu, 2007).Disparities linked to location. Illiteracy tends tobe higher in poorer regions, rural areas and slums.Regional disparities often mirror national povertymaps. For example, in Brazil some of the pooreststates in the north-east – Alagoas, Maranhão,Paraíba and Piauí – have illiteracy levels twice ashigh as in the south-east (The George WashingtonUniversity, 2006). In India, the regional spectrumextends from almost no illiteracy in the stateof Mizoram to 50% illiteracy in Rajasthan (IndiaMinistry of Human Resource Development andNational University of Educational Planning andAdministration, 2008). Rural areas often lag farbehind urban areas (Kinsella and He, 2009).In Pakistan, urban literacy rates are twice as highas the rural average. Within urban areas illiteracytends to be concentrated in informal settlementscharacterized by high levels of poverty (PakistanMinistry of Education, 2008).None of these disadvantages exists in isolation.Being female is a near-universal indicator for loweraverage literacy in many Arab states and most ofSouth and West Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa. Butgender disadvantage is compounded by poverty,location and ethnicity (Figure 2.34). The wealth gapin the Philippines is particularly marked: women inthe poorest households have literacy rates averaging65%, compared with over 96% for women in thewealthiest households. In South Africa, white youthand adult women have near-universal literacy levels,compared with just 70% literacy among blackwomen. In Mexico, women who only speak anindigenous language are about fifteen times lesslikely to be literate than women who only speakSpanish, and women lacking a knowledge ofSpanish have literacy levels of just 5%. Literacyrates among Cambodian women living in Ratanakiri,a province dominated by indigenous hill tribes, arejust over a third of those among women in thecapital, Phnom Penh.Prospects for achieving the 2015 targetCurrent trends in adult literacy will leave the worldshort of the target set for 2015. 32 Progress has beenso slow that the target is out of reach. Even in abest-case scenario, not enough children will enteradulthood literate over the next five years to halvethe level of illiteracy. Continuing on the current trendwill leave a very large gap with the Dakar promise.Projections provided for the EFA Global MonitoringReport 2010 give a ballpark estimate of the scaleof shortfall: by 2015 the adult illiteracy rate will havefallen between 29% and 34% in the three regionswith the highest rates. In other words, between halfand two-thirds of the journey to the 50% illiteracyreduction target will have been completed.There is a very real human cost associated withthe gap. On the current course, an estimated710 million adults – 13% of the world’s adults – willstill lack basic literacy skills in 2015. Regional gapsbetween target and projected outcome are largestfor South and West Asia, sub-Saharan Africa andthe Arab States (Figure 2.35). Failure to achieve theDakar adult literacy goal will translate into verylarge deficits for many countries. In India the targetwill be missed on current trends by around 81 million100