Reaching the marginalized: EFA global monitoring report, 2010; 2010

PROGRESS TOWARDS THE EFA GOALSUniversal primary educationFigure 2.8: Missing the target — out-of-school trends projected to 2015Projected numbers of out-of-school children to 2015120100105 millionRest of the worldOut-of-school children (millions)806040South and West Asia39 million72 million56 million20Sub-Saharan Africa45 million8 million23 million01999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Note: Projections based on regional compound growth rates for 1999–2007.Source: UIS database (data for 1999–2007).problem. Best estimates suggest that morethan 25 million out-of-school children live inlow-income countries affected by conflict –around 35% of the global total. 7 Finding waysto reach children in conflict-affected areasof countries such as Afghanistan, the CentralAfrican Republic, the Democratic Republicof the Congo and the Sudan is one of the mosturgent of all EFA challenges. Attaching moreweight to education in post-conflict recoveryis also vital. While Liberia now has peace andstability, 447,000 of its children were out ofschool in 2008 – an increase of almost 180,000over 1999.Numbers are probably underestimated.Estimating the number of children from therelevant age group who are out of primaryschool is an inexact science. Administrativedata that schools report to ministries ofeducation are an important resource andnational reporting systems are becoming moreeffective. However, uncertainties overdemographic profiles (and hence the numberof children in each age group) can cloud theissue. Household surveys are another sourceof information, usually obtained throughparental reporting on whether their childrenattend school. There are often significantinconsistencies between these two data sources.For twenty-nine countries in sub-Saharan Africa,and South and West Asia examined in thisReport, household surveys show around 50%fewer children in school – 22 million in total –than administrative data indicate. This isequivalent to an increase of 30% in the globalout-of-school estimate. Such findings illustratehow different measurement tools can generatedifferent results. They also demonstrate theimportance of national governments,international agencies and researchersworking together to build a more completepicture of the out-of-school population (Box 2.5).Who and where are the out-of-schoolchildren — and what are their chancesof entering school?Being out of school is not a fixed condition. Thecategory covers children who have dropped out ofschool temporarily or permanently, those who havenever been to school but might start late and thosewho will never go to school. Data constraints makeit difficult to unravel the precise characteristics ofthe out-of-school population. However, a modeldeveloped by the UNESCO Institute for Statistics(UIS) makes it possible to predict, on the basis ofpast evidence, what share of out-of-school childrenis likely to enrol in the future (UIS, 2009a).Household surveydata suggest anincrease of 30%in the globalout-of-schoolestimate7. The countries included areones that experienced armedconflicts resulting in at leasttwenty-five battle-relateddeaths per year over at leastthree years between 1999and 2007 or more than 1,000battle-related deaths in atleast one year during thesame period. Of these, onlycountries categorized asleast developed countriesby the United Nations orlow-income countries bythe World Bank in 2007 wereincluded. The proportionof children out of schoolaccording to this definitionis lower than the frequentlyquoted figure of more thanhalf. The higher figure isbased on calculations usinga different methodology,which includes somecountries identified as‘fragile’ but not in conflict, aswell as some middle-incomeconflict-affected countries(Save the Children, 2009a).57