Reaching the marginalized: EFA global monitoring report, 2010; 2010

010CHAPTER 12Education for All Global Monitoring ReportFigure 1.1: Post-crisis economic growth projections have been revised downwards for all developing regionsReal GDP growth projections since April 2008, selected regions, 2003–2009GDP annual growth rate (%)1086420-2-42003 20042005 2006 2007 2008 2009Note: Regions shown are those used by the IMF, which differ to some extent from the Education for All regions.Source: IMF (2009f).Table 1.1: Potential revenue loss in sub-Saharan Africa, 2008–2010Constant PPP 2006 $US billions unless specified 2008 2009 2010Revenues, excluding grants (%GDP) average, April 2009Pre-crisis government revenue projection 1Post-crisis government revenue projection 2Potential revenue loss associated with economic crisisSlower economic growthDecreased revenue-to-GDP ratio24.7 20.8 21.6378 402 427376 322 3471.4 79.8 80.31.4 16.4 26.70.0 63.4 53.6Notes: These estimates are based on weighted and aggregated single country gross domestic productprojections. Countries were weighted using GDP based on the purchasing power parity share of the region.‘Pre-crisis projections’ are for April 2008 and ‘post-crisis projections’ for April 2009. Excludes Somalia andZimbabwe.1. Based on April 2008 growth projections and 2008 revenue-to-GDP ratios.2. Based on April 2009 growth projections and adjusted revenue-to-GDP ratios.Sources: IMF (2008, 2009e, 2009g).poverty falls, and economic growth is an importantcondition for sustained poverty reduction.The experience of sub-Saharan Africa is instructive.During the 1990s, economic stagnation and highlevels of external debt undermined governments’capacity to finance education, with per capitaspending declining in many countries. That pictureEmerging anddeveloping economies04/0810/0811/0801/0907/09Advanced economiesJuly 2009has changed dramatically, with public spending onprimary education rising by 29% over the periodfrom 2000 to 2005 (Figure 1.2). This turnaroundwas instrumental in reducing the numbers ofchildren out of school and strengtheningeducation infrastructure. Around three-quartersof the increase was directly attributable toeconomic growth, with the balance accountedfor by increased revenue collection and budgetredistribution in favour of the education sector.What does the economic slowdown mean foreducation financing in sub-Saharan Africatowards 2015? The answer will depend on theduration of the slowdown, the pace of recovery,governments’ approach to budget adjustmentsand the response of international donors. Thereare many uncertainties in each area. Nevertheless,governments have to draw up public spendingplans in an uncertain environment. One wayof capturing the potential threat to educationfinancing is to consider a scenario that holdsthe share of expenditure invested in educationconstant, with adjustments for reduced economicgrowth and lower revenue-to-GDP ratios (Figure 1.3).22