Reaching the marginalized: EFA global monitoring report, 2010; 2010

PROGRESS TOWARDS THE EFA GOALSUniversal primary educationthe number of primary school age children in thesystem, but not on where they are in the system,on how many started school over the official age oron the level of grade repetition. Both measuresprovide important but partial information – and therelationship between the two is highly variable.Countries with gross intake rates that are higherthan net enrolment ratios (those on the left of thefigure) are characterized by high levels of over-ageentry to last grade. Those in the opposite position –Burundi is an example – are characterized by lowlevels of internal efficiency. But neither measureoffers more than a partial insight into how near acountry is to achieving universal primary educationor how far it may be from that goal.Cohort tracking can provide a more integratedperspective. Figure 2.22 illustrates one possibleCohort trackingprovides anintegratedperspective onprogress towardsuniversal primaryeducationFigure 2.22: Children who start primary school have varying chances to complete the last gradeNet intake rates into first grade of primary through to net cohort completion rates, selected countries, 20061009080Net intake ratesNet cohort survival to grade 5Net cohort completion rates7060(%)50403020100**EritreaBurkina FasoBotswanaMauritaniaTogoNigerBeninMozambiqueBurundiKuwaitSenegalEl SalvadorMalawiLao PDRNicaraguaBrunei Daruss.Cape VerdeGuatemalaGeorgiaUkraineAnguillaMongoliaArubaMadagascarCambodiaIraqMoroccoAlgeriaPanamaPakistanEcuadorMauritiusTajikistanNet cohort completion rates, the example of Nicaragua100Primaryschool entryage pupilsNet intake rateinto first gradeof primary (67%)67Cohort thatenters at thecorrect ageSurvival to grade 5(47% of the cohortentered)In Nicaragua, the net intake rate into first grade was 67% in 2006. The survival rate to grade 5 was47% and the primary completion rate 40%.These observed rates allow us to estimate the prospectsof a cohort of pupils aged 6 (the primary school starting age) completing the six-year cycle.If repetition and dropout rates remain unchanged, of 100 pupils aged 6, 67 will enter thefirst grade of primary school at the correct age. Of these, 32 will survive until grade 5,and 27 will graduate from the final grade.32Net cohortsurvival tograde 5Primary completionrate (40% of thecohort entered)27Net cohortcompletionrateNotes: The lines for each country illustrate the prospects for a cohort of 100 children of primary school entry age completing the cycle if the education systemremains in its current state (taking account of current rates of repetition and dropout). Ideally, all children should enter school at the official starting age.The net intake rate is therefore used as the entry point. The net cohort survival rate to grade 5 and the net cohort completion rate are obtained by multiplyingthe net intake rate by, respectively, the survival rate to grade 5 and the primary cohort completion rate. All countries with available data are included.* Countries whose primary education cycle is less than five years.Source: Global Monitoring Report team calculations based on Statistical Tables 4 and 7 (annex).73