Reaching the marginalized: EFA global monitoring report, 2010; 2010

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010CHAPTER 12Education for All Global Monitoring ReportFigure 1.1: Post-crisis economic growth projections have been revised downwards for all developing regionsReal GDP growth projections since April 2008, selected regions, 2003–2009GDP annual growth rate (%)1086420-2-42003 20042005 2006 2007 2008 2009Note: Regions shown are those used by the IMF, which differ to some extent from the Education for All regions.Source: IMF (2009f).Table 1.1: Potential revenue loss in sub-Saharan Africa, 2008–2010Constant PPP 2006 $US billions unless specified 2008 2009 2010Revenues, excluding grants (%GDP) average, April 2009Pre-crisis government revenue projection 1Post-crisis government revenue projection 2Potential revenue loss associated with economic crisisSlower economic growthDecreased revenue-to-GDP ratio24.7 20.8 21.6378 402 427376 322 3471.4 79.8 80.31.4 16.4 26.70.0 63.4 53.6Notes: These estimates are based on weighted and aggregated single country gross domestic productprojections. Countries were weighted using GDP based on the purchasing power parity share of the region.‘Pre-crisis projections’ are for April 2008 and ‘post-crisis projections’ for April 2009. Excludes Somalia andZimbabwe.1. Based on April 2008 growth projections and 2008 revenue-to-GDP ratios.2. Based on April 2009 growth projections and adjusted revenue-to-GDP ratios.Sources: IMF (2008, 2009e, 2009g).poverty falls, and economic growth is an importantcondition for sustained poverty reduction.The experience of sub-Saharan Africa is instructive.During the 1990s, economic stagnation and highlevels of external debt undermined governments’capacity to finance education, with per capitaspending declining in many countries. That pictureEmerging anddeveloping economies04/0810/0811/0801/0907/09Advanced economiesJuly 2009has changed dramatically, with public spending onprimary education rising by 29% over the periodfrom 2000 to 2005 (Figure 1.2). This turnaroundwas instrumental in reducing the numbers ofchildren out of school and strengtheningeducation infrastructure. Around three-quartersof the increase was directly attributable toeconomic growth, with the balance accountedfor by increased revenue collection and budgetredistribution in favour of the education sector.What does the economic slowdown mean foreducation financing in sub-Saharan Africatowards 2015? The answer will depend on theduration of the slowdown, the pace of recovery,governments’ approach to budget adjustmentsand the response of international donors. Thereare many uncertainties in each area. Nevertheless,governments have to draw up public spendingplans in an uncertain environment. One wayof capturing the potential threat to educationfinancing is to consider a scenario that holdsthe share of expenditure invested in educationconstant, with adjustments for reduced economicgrowth and lower revenue-to-GDP ratios (Figure 1.3).22
EDUCATION AT RISK: THE IMPACT OF THE FINANCIAL CRISISDouble jeopardy: food prices and financial crisis12Sub-Saharan Africa12Middle East101088GDP growth rate (%)642April 2008July 2009GDP growth rate (%)642April 2008July 20090-22007 2008 20090-22007 2008 2009-4-412Developing Asia12Latin America and the Caribbean10108April 20088GDP growth rate (%)642July 2009GDP growth rate (%)642April 20080-22007 2008 20090-22007 2008 2009July 2009-4-4Figure 1.2: Economic growth matters for education financingPrimary education expenditure in sub-Saharan Africa between 2000 and 2005,growth decomposition30Figure 1.3: Education financing in sub-Saharan Africa could sufferfrom slower economic growthEstimated forgone income for education due to the crisis in 2009 and 20101250Pre-crisis projectionsExplained variation (%)20151050Constant PPP 2006 US$ billions-1-2-3-4Primary education spendingTotal education spending-5-5-10Totalvariationin spendingChange dueto GDPgrowthChange dueto revenuecollectionSources: Pôle de Dakar (2002, 2004, 2005, 2007); UIS database.Change dueto educationbudgetallocationChange dueto primaryeducationbudgetallocation-62009 2010Notes: The shares of GDP devoted to education and primary education have beenconsidered constant and correspond to median shares in 2007 for both data. Forgone incomeis the difference between education spending estimated with pre-crisis projections and thatcalculated with the most recent post-crisis projections.Sources: IMF (2008, 2009g); UIS database.23
Page 9 and 10: CONTENTSChapter 4The aid compact: f
Page 12 and 13: 100CONTENTS2Education for All Globa
Page 15 and 16: HIGHLIGHTS OF THE EFA REPORT 2010Hi
Page 17 and 18: OVERVIEW© XINHUA/Gamma/Eyedea Pres
Page 19 and 20: OVERVIEWChapter 2Monitoring progres
Page 21 and 22: OVERVIEWis open to question. Many n
Page 23 and 24: OVERVIEWon the scale of marginaliza
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Page 27 and 28: OVERVIEW© Crispin Hughes/PANOSthe
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PROGRESS TOWARDS THE EFA GOALSUnive
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PROGRESS TOWARDS THE EFA GOALSUnive
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PROGRESS TOWARDS THE EFA GOALSYouth
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PROGRESS TOWARDS THE EFA GOALSThe q
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PROGRESS TOWARDS THE EFA GOALSEstim
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Education for All Global Monitoring
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REACHING THE MARGINALIZEDIntroducti
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REACHING THE MARGINALIZEDIntroducti
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REACHING THE MARGINALIZEDMeasuring
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REACHING THE MARGINALIZEDGetting le
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REACHING THE MARGINALIZEDLevelling
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THE AID COMPACT: FALLING SHORT OF C
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RISING TO THE EFA CHALLENGEOvercomi
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THE EDUCATION FOR ALL DEVELOPMENT I
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SELECTED INTERNATIONAL HUMAN RIGHTS
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EDUCATIONAL EFFECT OF SELECTED SOCI
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STATISTICAL TABLESIntroductionunder
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STATISTICAL TABLESIntroductionLithu
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STATISTICAL TABLESTable 1CurrentUS$
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STATISTICAL TABLESTable 2YOUTH LITE
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STATISTICAL TABLESTable 3ACHILD WEL
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STATISTICAL TABLESTable 3ATuberculo
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STATISTICAL TABLESTable 3ACHILD WEL
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STATISTICAL TABLESTable 3ATuberculo
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STATISTICAL TABLESTable 3BGROSS ENR
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STATISTICAL TABLESTable 3BGROSS ENR
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01ANNEX02Education for All Global M
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0102ANNEXTable 5Participation in pr
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1002ANNEXTable 7Internal efficiency
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01ANNEX02Table 7 (continued)DROPOUT
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01ANNEX02Table 9B. Tertiary educati
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01ANNEX02Table 9B (continued)PERCEN
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1020ANNEXTable 12Trends in basic or
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2 0 10Education for All Global Moni
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20Education for All Global Monitori
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0120ANNEXEducation for All Global M
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12 00ANNEXEducation for All Global
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