Reaching the marginalized: EFA global monitoring report, 2010; 2010

001CHAPTER 22Education for All Global Monitoring ReportFigure 2.20: Most out-of-school children are in poorer countries, but some wealthier countries are underperformingPrimary net enrolment ratios, GNP per capita and out-of-school children headcount in low and middle income countries, 2007Net enrolment ratios in primary education (%)100804020EthiopiaMali60Burkina FasoC. A. R.U. R. TanzaniaTajikistanBangladeshLiberiaNigerEritreaGhanaNigeriaIndiaYemenDjiboutiIndonesiaPakistanPhilippines00 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000 14 000Notes: Bubble size represents the number of out-of-school children. Countries in red have more than 500,000 children out of school.Source: Annex, Statistical Tables 1 and 5.EgyptDominican Rep.GNP per capita (PPP US$ 2007)ThailandColombiaBrazilSouth AfricaIran, Isl. Rep.Turkey5 million out-of-school children1 million out-of-school children500,000 out-of-school childrenThe Philippinesand Turkeyperform lessstrongly thantheir nationalwealth predicts14. See Chapter 3for a fuller analysisof the reasons forthe challenges facingthe Philippines.while at the same time capturing the size of out-ofschoolpopulations. There are many reasons for theunderlying positive relationship between enrolmentand income. As countries grow wealthier, they andtheir citizens can spend more on education – and aseconomies grow they tend to generate demand forskilled labour. Of greater interest than the wellestablishedaverage association is variation aroundthe mean. At the lower end of the enrolmentspectrum, countries such as Nigeria and Pakistanare outperformed by poorer countries such asBangladesh and Ethiopia. At the higher end,countries including the Philippines, South Africaand Turkey perform less strongly than expected.The Philippines provides a particularly strikingexample of underperformance. 14 With an averageincome four times that of the United Republic ofTanzania or Zambia, it has a lower net enrolmentratio. The unfavourable comparisons do not endthere. Whereas the United Republic of Tanzaniaand Zambia have been steadily increasing netenrolment ratios, the Philippines has stagnated.Given the country’s starting point in 1999, achievinguniversal primary education by 2015 should havebeen a formality. There is now a real danger that,in the absence of decisive political leadership, thecountry will miss the goal. In 2007, out-of-schoolnumbers for children aged 6 to 11 broke throughthe 1 million mark and there were over 100,000more children out of school then than in 1999.Around one-quarter of those entering school dropout before grade 5. Other countries experiencingstagnation or slippage from high levels of netenrolment include Turkey, whose net enrolmentratio has remained unchanged since the beginningof the decade (UIS database).Why have countries that were so close to universalnet enrolment at the end of the 1990s failed to gothe extra mile? One factor is the difficulty inextending opportunities to certain regions and parts70