Reaching the marginalized: EFA global monitoring report, 2010; 2010

PROGRESS TOWARDS THE EFA GOALSEstimating the cost of achieving Education for AllBox 2.26: Information used for the global cost estimatesThe study has drawn on the most recent cross-countrydata in preparing the global financing estimates.Variables covered include the size of the school agepopulation, school system structure and capacity,student progression rates (e.g. promotion, repetitionand dropout rates) and key costs such as those forteachers, classrooms and textbooks. The three mainsources of data are:the United Nations World Population Prospectsdatabase, for information on school age populationsand projections of population growth;the UNESCO Institute for Statistics, for informationon enrolment, student progression rates, teachers,classrooms and education financing;the World Bank and International Monetary Fund,for information on overall government revenueand economic growth projections.These were supplemented by over thirty othersources, including national education sector reportsand plans, and public expenditure reviews. Informationwas also collected directly from UNESCO offices andother studies commissioned for the costing exercise(Box 2.27). In the few cases where no national datawere available, regional aggregates were used. Therewere often large differences in reported data for agiven country, particularly with respect to educationcosts. Every effort was made to use the best availabledata. However, in some cases there are large marginsof error. Overall, the cost estimates should be treatedas indicative of the magnitude of financing gaps inlow-income countries.A detailed outline of the methodology, data andresults is available in EPDC and UNESCO (2009).However, their indicative and provisional natureis readily acknowledged.Estimating the financing required to meet theEducation for All goals poses several problemsbecause the goals set in Dakar do not all includequantitative targets. In addition, quantifyingfinancing gaps means measuring the differencebetween estimated costs and domestic financingcapacity. Determining the latter involvesidentifying the degree to which low-incomecountries can make domestic resources available,taking into account economic growth prospectsand public spending levels. The followingsubsections set out the parameters for theseareas.Identifying the targetsIn the Dakar Framework for Action, governmentsmade a commitment to achieve universal primaryeducation by 2015. This is a clear, quantifiable andmeasurable goal, though its precise meaning isopen to interpretation. There are also quantifiabletargets for adult literacy. Other goals of greatimportance lack clear targets. Examples includethe injunctions to improve education quality andensure access to appropriate learningprogrammes for young people and adults. Insome cases, goals relating to quality and equitydefine important principles but do not establishclear benchmarks. Targets chosen for thiscosting exercise cover four areas (Table 2.8):Early childhood care and education. It is widelyrecognized that good early childhood educationis important not just in its own right but also asa way to improve participation and learningachievement in primary education. Buildingon previous work, this exercise adopts a targetof providing free pre-primary education to allchildren living below the poverty line (VanRavens and Aggio, 2007, 2008). This translatesinto an average gross enrolment ratio of 52%by 2015 for countries included in the exercise.Universal primary education. For the purposesof this exercise, it is assumed that all primaryschool age children enter school on time andprogress through school with limited repetitionand no dropout, implying a net enrolment ratioof 100% by 2015. 54Lower secondary education. The DakarFramework does not include targets forsecondary education, but increasingparticipation at this level is important. ThisReport therefore includes a costing exercisethat assumes that all children completingprimary education by 2015 will make thetransition to lower secondary school, implyingan average gross enrolment ratio of about 88%by 2015 for countries included in the exercise.Adult literacy. The Dakar target of halvingadult illiteracy will require wide-ranginginterventions. Part of the target will be achievedThe costingexercise providesa comprehensivereview andreassessmentof the EFAfinancing gap54. This assumption has theeffect of understating costsassociated with reachingover-age children currentlyout of primary school.121