Perspektiv på välfärden 2004 (pdf) - Statistiska centralbyrån

Kapitel 4
How Problematic are
Youth Problems in the
Long Run?
Youth
A longitudinal study of incomes and economic
hardship among Swedish youth
Av Björn Halleröd and Annika Westberg
Dept of Sociology, Umeå university
Abstract
• The questions addressed in this study are: first,
what factors determine the economic situation
among the young and, second, what factors in
youth have a long-term impact on people's economic
situations?
• The empirical analysis utilizes a three wave
panel that covers a period of 16 years. A growth
curve model is used in order to estimate
changes over time and the following main results
are found:
• Young people’s incomes do not say very much
about their current standard of living or future
earning ability. If anything, low income is a
predictor of substantial future income growth.
There are good reasons to be sceptical regarding
the importance of analysing young people's income
situation and the incidence of income
poverty among the young.
• Being economically deprived during youth is
unrelated to the development of deprivation
over time. Hence, the finding that young people
in general face economic difficulties does not
imply that we are observing a problem with
lasting implications.
• Labour market situation and household characteristics
during youth are only modestly related
to the development later on in life. However,
long-term unemployment hampers young people's
economy also in the long run.
• Most importantly, the results of this analysis
emphasize the importance of the reproduction
of class and gender relations. It is these two
fundamental aspects that more than anything
else affect young people, on their way into
adulthood and in their future life as adults.
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