Enayam Port

Tamil Research Institute
RAPID TECHNO-ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY REPORT FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF COLACHEL PORT AT TAMILNADU
FINAL REPORT
In order to project the container growth in India, projections for GDP growth and scenarios of container
multipliers have been developed.
Base case Indian GDP growth forecasts for the next 30 years
The figure below shows projections of GDP growth in India. GDP growth is expected to pick up and continue to
>6% growth in first decade, growth tapers down in the following decades
be strong at an average of ~6.5% for the next 10 years.
Real GDP PPP in bn US$
40
30
4.2%
20
5.0%
10
6.5%
0
2015
2025
2030 2035
2040
2045
Note: GDP calculations based on 2005 prices
Source: EIU GDP forecast
Figure 47: Indian GDP Projections for 30 years
As discussed earlier, the container growth is usually higher than GDP growth specially in developing economics.
In India the container growth multiplier (container growth / GDP growth) has been between 1.7 – 2.3 over the
last 20 years. In order to project container traffic growth using GDP forecast estimates, three scenarios (base,
conservative and aggressive) for container multiplier has been developed using the projections of three
underlying drivers that influence this multiplier – consumption, outsourcing and containerization. Similarly, three
scenarios for GDP growth has been developed using the understanding of key underlying trends. e.g. . In
aggressive case, the GDP can accelerate by a factor 1.1X over the base case projection of 6.5% growth, if
"Make in India" initiatives are successful key infrastructure projects are implemented in time and are able to spur
industrial growth.
The figure below describes the base, conservative and aggressive scenarios for container traffic projection
developed using the scenarios of GDP growth and container multipliers.
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