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Enayam Port

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% of total dry bulk cargo through 5 ports<br />

100<br />

80<br />

60<br />

40<br />

20<br />

0<br />

80%<br />

Coal<br />

Iron Ores<br />

Source: IPA data on major ports, BCG analysis<br />

Other Ores<br />

Fertilizers (Dry)<br />

Food grains<br />

Iron/ Steel<br />

Salt and Sugar<br />

Cement<br />

100%<br />

Total<br />

% of Coal off-take (in MMT) from CIL FY14<br />

100<br />

80<br />

60<br />

40<br />

20<br />

0<br />

76%<br />

Power<br />

Captive Power<br />

7%<br />

Steel<br />

2%<br />

Cement<br />

1%<br />

Fertilizer<br />

1%<br />

Draft—for discussion only<br />

Sponge<br />

2%<br />

Co liery<br />

0%<br />

10%<br />

Others<br />

100%<br />

Total<br />

Copyright © 2015 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. A l rights reserved.<br />

Tamil Research Institute<br />

RAPID TECHNO-ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY REPORT FOR<br />

DEVELOPMENT OF COLACHEL PORT AT TAMILNADU<br />

FINAL REPORT<br />

6.2.2. Bulk traffic projections<br />

Based on the detailed assessment of the bulk traffic, it clearly appears that share of coal is by far the highest<br />

amongst all bulk cargo in the hinterland. The coal traffic itself is driven by demand from thermal power plants. To<br />

project coal traffic in <strong>Enayam</strong>, two types of sources have been studied. The demand for new captive power<br />

plants and the demand for already planned power plants in the region. Further, projection has been made for<br />

new captive plants, beyond the planned period, by projecting the power demand supply gap in T.N. Finally,<br />

feasibility of <strong>Enayam</strong> to serve the planned power projects has been studied in detail.<br />

The approach for bulk traffic estimation is described in the following figure.<br />

Key driver of bulk traffic<br />

Power consumption<br />

estimation<br />

Demand-Supply Gap<br />

Traffic Projection<br />

• Coal traffic drives majority of<br />

the traffic in the region<br />

• Estimate the portion of coal<br />

traffic in total and the drivers<br />

for coal traffic<br />

• Project the power demand<br />

using historical trends and<br />

global benchmarks<br />

• Assess the pattern followed<br />

by other countries,<br />

particularly China<br />

• Estimate the demand-supply<br />

gap in the coming years<br />

based on the planned supply<br />

of power plants in the next 5<br />

years<br />

• Forecast Colachel traffic by<br />

assessing the share of<br />

traffic it can take from<br />

planned power plants and<br />

captive power plant at<br />

Colachel<br />

Coal from power plants drives the break bulk traffic at the<br />

shortlisted ports<br />

Coal accounts for ~80 % of dry<br />

bulk cargo<br />

~83 % of coal off-take is used for thermal<br />

power plants & captive plants<br />

Coal traffic will be driven by demand for thermal<br />

power plants<br />

Figure 76 Approach for bulk traffic projections<br />

1. Captive Power Plants<br />

Even after accounting for the proposed power plants in Tamil Nadu, it is estimated that demand will surpass<br />

supply post FY 22 (figure 64). Hence, there is a potential to develop a new power plant in <strong>Enayam</strong> to meet the<br />

gap in the subsequent years. (figure below).<br />

87<br />

www.tamilri.com

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