Enayam Port

Tamil Research Institute
RAPID TECHNO-ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY REPORT FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF COLACHEL PORT AT TAMILNADU
FINAL REPORT
Used GDP growth & container growth multiplier to forecast traffic
Scenario analysis for Indian container growth –multipliers assumed to taper off in the later years
GDP growth scenario
Container growth
x multiplier
=
Container growth
accelerator
1.1 1 1
1.7 1.4 1
1.8 1.4 1
Scenario 1
(Aggressive)
• Acceleration in GDP from timely
implementation of infrastructure
projects and acceleration due to
'Make in India' campaign
• Faster rate of containerization
• Acceleration in container trade as a
result of greater outsourcing share
1 1 1 1.6 1.3 1.1
1.6 1.3 1.1
Scenario 2
(Base Case)
• Base case growth assuming no
major internal or external shifts in
economic environment and
historical pace of implementation of
infrastructure investment projects
• Historical containerization growth,
slightly lower outsourcing growth
due to emergence of other low cost
countries like Mexico, Indonesia
etc.
Scenario 3
(Conservative)
0.8 0.9 0.9 1.5 1.2 0.9 1.2 1.1 0.8
• Lower GDP growth due to delays in
infrastructure projects/ low response to
'Make in India' and a weak global
economy (instability in Europe / slow
revival of US)
• Slower growth of containerization
due to logistic bottlenecks, erosion
of manufacturing competitiveness
and slow down in consumption
2015-2025 2026-2035 2035-2045
Figure 48: Assumptions for scenario analysis
The scenarios have then modelled and developed into container volume forecasts. The traffic forecast over the
next 30 years Indian has been container detailed out traffic in the following expected figure. to In 2030 reach India's between container 35-54 volumes are MN expected to
reach 35-54 Mn TEUs in the base case
TEUs by 2030
30-year projections for container traffic based on 3 scenarios
Conservative Case
Base case
Aggressive Case
MN TEU 112
100
96
100
80
74
84
76
60
40
38
33
54
46
35
63
46
63
20
12
18
21
25
0
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
Figure 49: 30 year projection of Indian container cargo
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