Energi i fremtiden - globale, regionale og nationale ... - Teknologirådet

Gb/a
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
THE GROWING GAP
Past Discovery
Future Discovery
Production
Past discovery based
on ExxonMobil (2002).
Revisions backdated
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Figure 3. Backdated world discovery of crude oil in comparison with production.
The decline in discovery has been relentless for decades, being also depicted by the IEA in the following
figure 4.
Figure 4. Additions to world proven oil reserves from the discovery of new fields and production (figure 3.14
in WEO2004).
Plotting the discovery trend per decade on a logarithmic scale allows extrapolation into the future, clearly
demonstrating that 300 Gb will not be found during the next 30 years. A more plausible estimate is between
150 and 200 Gb.
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