Energi i fremtiden - globale, regionale og nationale ... - TeknologirÃ¥det

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Endnotes This article opened with a quote from the New York Times, and it is fitting to end with a quote from an article from Daily Telegraph on October 31 by Liam Halligan, “The West is deluded to rely on Saudi oil” [10]. In the article you find an interview with Al-Husseini, who was head of exploration and production at Aramco until March this year. Aramco is the state owned oil company that accounts for 97 per cent of Saudi’s crude production. "The question isn't, can we can pump 15m or 20m barrels daily?" Al-Husseini says. "The question is, how long it can be sustained? We could only manage 22 mbpd for a very short time - maybe 10 years. And that would mean an awful lot of depletion, which isn't in the best interests of the global economy." What does Al-Husseini says about the estimates from EIA, the US Energy Information Administration, of future Saudi production? "These are US numbers, not ours," he says. "The American production outlook is much too high." Where is EIA going wrong? “The IEA focuses only on demand (in this article called political agenda). That is why they overestimate not only future Middle East supplies, but non-OPEC (in this article discussed as the rest of the world) and Russian supplies too”. This is defiantly a support for the analysis presented in this article. 66 Confucius, figure to the left, said 500 BC: “Study the past to define the future”. We in ASPO have studied the past as carefully as it is possible and with that knowledge as starting point we have now defined the future. References [1]. World Energy Outlook 2004, IEA Publications, ISBN 92-64-1081-73-2004 [2]. Oil Demands Can Be Met, but at a High Price. New York Times October 27, 2004: (http://www.nytimes.com/2004/10/28/business/28oil.html?ex=1100004658&ei=1&en=230f4d77af7d6a b2)
[3]. International Energy Outlook 2004, Guy Caruso, Thirty-First Annual International Energy Conference, Boulder, Colorado, April 19, 2004. [4]. K. Aleklett and C.J.Campbell, Minerals & <strong>Energi</strong>y, 2003; 18:5-20 (read ) [5]. Work in pr<strong>og</strong>ress, Uppsala Hydrocarbon Depletion Study Group, Uppsala University. [6]. Jean Laherrere, privat comunications [7]. W. Zittel, J. Schindler, L-B-Systemtechn, Energy Bulletin http://www.energybulletin.net/2544.html?ENERGYBULL=4410877abeb36c6d264498b2e0e22080 [8]. Colin Campbell, www.peakoil.net [9]. The Lamp, Jon Thompson, 2003, Vol. 85 No.1, http://www2.exxonmobil.com/corporate/newsroom/publications/thelampno1_2003/page_5.html [10]. Daily Telegraph on October 31 by Liam Halligan, “The West is deluded to rely on Saudi oil”. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml;sessionid=AQVAF4DKUJIUZQFIQMGCM5WAVCBQUJVC ?xml=/money/2004/10/31/ccshell131.xml&secureRefresh=true&_requestid=59712 67
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Energi i fremtiden - globale, regio
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Forord Denne rapport samler op på
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VEDVARENDE ENERGIRESSOURCER I DANMA
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Ved konsulent Peter Hoffmann, Dansk
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Deltagerliste Aksel Hauge Pedersen
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Mikael Bay Hansen Dansk Metal Mikae
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Projektet ”Det fremtidige danske
Page 15 and 16: gelsen af høringerne vælges der b
Page 17 and 18: skal regne med, at vedvarende energ
Page 19 and 20: at stige gevaldigt. Hvad angår lan
Page 21 and 22: højere indtjening og en gunstig ef
Page 23 and 24: Udpluk fra debatten om De kommende
Page 25 and 26: Vindmølleindustrien har beregnet,
Page 27 and 28: mængde offentlige midler, end der
Page 29 and 30: I forhold til sammensætningen af b
Page 31 and 32: 1. Strammes op på nye huses varme-
Page 33 and 34: Og så er der transportproblemet -
Page 35 and 36: Henrik Lund svarede, at overordnet
Page 37 and 38: Projects: Tanzanian Village Energy
Page 39 and 40: 2000 1) Large-scale Particulate Fil
Page 41 and 42: De globale udfordringer Af: Ambassa
Page 43 and 44: For det første har skiftet af frem
Page 45 and 46: solenergi, vandkraft, vindenergi pl
Page 47 and 48: spireret terrorisme. USA ser på om
Page 49 and 50: Olie og gas felter andre steder run
Page 51 and 52: The IEA was established in November
Page 53 and 54: Gb/a 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 THE GROWIN
Page 55 and 56: The Outlook reviews as follows the
Page 57 and 58: A derivative of the trend reported
Page 59 and 60: It introduces the concept of the st
Page 61 and 62: The study adds the telling comment
Page 63 and 64: 3% increase in the consumption. Tog
Page 65: Conclusions We may conclude that th
Page 69 and 70: Mtoe The Context Global Energy Tren
Page 71 and 72: Undiscovered Oil & Gas Resources 1.
Page 73 and 74: Oil Market Implications of High Oil
Page 75 and 76: cm 1 000 750 500 250 0 Russian Gas
Page 77 and 78: World Alternative Policy Scenario K
Page 79 and 80: illion dollars (2000) 150 100 50 0
Page 81 and 82: Samfundsøkonomiske følger af olie
Page 83 and 84: Energipolitiske fællesskaber i EU
Page 85 and 86: EUROHEAT & POWER: Foreningen for kr
Page 87 and 88: Fossile energiressourcer i Danmark
Page 89 and 90: mia. Nm³ 10 8 6 4 2 0 Prognoser fo
Page 91 and 92: mia. tons 1500 1000 500 0 Verdens k
Page 93 and 94: For at løse transportenergiforbrug
Page 95 and 96: Hvilke særlige forhold præger udv
Page 97 and 98: videreudvikling fra demonstrationsf
Page 99 and 100: Men for at opnå disse fordele er d
Page 101 and 102: Denne omstilling rummer et kolossal
Page 103 and 104: Demonstration og tidligere markedss
Page 105 and 106: Udviklingen i det danske energiforb
Page 107 and 108: Allerede eksisterende planer om at
Page 109 and 110: initiativer på området. Bl.a. res
Page 111 and 112: Elforbruget og transporten Den vist
Page 113 and 114: PJ 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Page 115 and 116: Transportsektorens rolle i energifo
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Problemet med flere af disse tiltag
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Mulige energibesparelsesstrategier
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Varmeisolering Bedre isolering er e
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Stress på arbejdspladserne, mangle
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Det tillokkende ved progressive afg
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Aktører i Energibesparelsespolitik
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Opsummering I dette afsluttende afs
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En international regulering på vid
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De samfundsøkonomiske konsekvenser
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Emission mængde (2003) samlet ekst
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cerne? Hvor skal vi placere os? Og
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»Ja, astronomisk fortæller det mi
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Så er der LNG, naturgas, og det in
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Det sidste punkt inden min konklusi
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Det er en forkortelse på den forsk
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Det er ikke mig selv, der har bedt
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Denne figur viser, hvordan det kan
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Jørgen Birk Mortensen (Det Økonom
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koster det at tegne de her former f
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Konklusionen er, at den nye energip
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Jeg vil sige, og spørgsmålet var
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Ordstyrer: Så var der et spørgsm
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Med hensyn til vedvarende energi, s
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godt for os. Så det vil jeg bede j
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Den nationale del den kommer ind om
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kunne vi sådan set godt begynde at
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Det har folk jo gjort. Det har de o
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Jamen den australske model går jo
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tigt om i dag. Der vil forhåbentli
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Jeg ville egentlig indlede med at s
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Og når man så har gjort sig det h
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Ordstyrer: Tak skal du have, Tage.
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Men jeg tror, det er meget vigtigt,
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Jamen, jeg er nået dertil, hvor je
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har vi også haft succes. Vi har f
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gammelt teknologisk produkt, og at
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en 65 procents reduktion - end i at
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skabe konkurrence mellem besparelse
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Så skal man så sige, jamen det ku
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som indtægter hos staten. Det er s
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En international regulering på vid
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giver i samfundsøkonomiske omkostn
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hvor de ligger inde i byerne, er de
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600-700 bar, når det er brint, vi
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Så har vi diskuteret virkemidler.
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Energi i fremtiden - globale, regionale og nationale ... - TeknologirÃ¥det

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