Energi i fremtiden - globale, regionale og nationale ... - Teknologirådet

3% increase in the consumption. Together with a realistic decline rate in Russia we can estimate that the
volume for export can be limited. In table 3.5 the Outlook suggest an increase in the production for FSU
from 9.5 Mb/d in 2003 to 15.9 Mb/d in 2030. A more realistic assessment is given in Figure 15.
Figure 17: Production of oil
from “the Rest Of the World”,
ROW. For countries that has
passed the peak production
the year for the rollover is
given. The other countries are
expected to reach rollover
within the next 10 years.
Subtracting FSU from Non-OPEC and we obtain a value for what we may term the rest of the world, ROW.
Werner Zittel, member of ASPO, has studied it in detail [7]. In figure 17 illustrates how production from
individual countries adds up. Around 70% of ROW production, 25 Mb/d, comes from countries that have
already passed their peak of production, and are accordingly set to decline at 4% to 5% per year to 2030,
when they will be able to produce around 8 Mb/d. The other group with a production of 10 Mb/d can at
best have a 1% decline per year to 2030, giving production of 8 Mb/d. Adding these numbers gives 16
Mb/d for the rest of the world, compared with the Outlook’s 27.5 Mb/d (43.4 Mb/d minus 15.9 Mb/d). It is
evident that the Outlook forecasts are clearly unrealistically high.
The next group to consider is the OPEC countries. In the reference scenario the estimated production
should increase from 28.2 Mb/d to 64,8 Mb/d, an increase of 130%. The Outlook lists the demands on individual
countries and the
influence of the IEA
outlook, Figure 18, is
obvious.
Figure 18: Production
capacity year 2001 and
demanded production from
US Energy Information
Administration in units of
million barrels per day.
Two months earlier Saudi
Aramco had in Washington
presented what they called
the Maximum Sustainable
Capacity, MSC. With a production of 12 Mb/d it clamed to have a sustainable production until 2033, see
Figure 19. This is far from 22.5 Mb/d, proposed in the Outlook.
63