Energi i fremtiden - globale, regionale og nationale ... - Teknologirådet

Figure 13: Reserves growth in Prudhoe Bay compared with production per year. The reserves growth cannot
prevent the decline in the oil field.
Future oil production
In conclusion, the Outlook illustrates its forecast of future production in Figure 14.
Figure 14: World oil production by source (figure 3,20 in WEO2004)
The figure is not explained in detail, but the IEA does discuss the decline in existing fields, concluding
that it ranges from 5% to 11% per year. Starting at 75 Mb/d in 2003 and ending with 15 Mb/d in 2030 is
equivalent to a decline rate of close to 6%, which we can certainly accept.
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