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56
SPURIOUS RESERVE REVISIONS
Abu Dubai Iran Iraq Kuwait Neutral Saudi Venezuela
private companies. In 1985, Kuwait
reported a 50% increase to its re-
Dhabi
Zone Arabia
serves overnight although nothing
1980
1981
1982
28.0
29.0
30.6
1.4
1.4
1.3
58.0
57.5
57.0
31.0
30.0
29.7
65.4
65.9
64.5
6.1
6.0
5.9
163.4
165.0
164.6
17.9
18.0
20.3
particular changed in the oilfields. It
did so to increase its OPEC produc-
1983 30.5 1.4 55.3 41.0 64.2 5.7 162.4 21.5 tion quota, which was based on
1984
1985
1986
30.4
30.5
30.0
1.4
1.4
1.4
51.0
48.5
47.9
43.0
44.5
44.1
63.9
90.0
89.8
5.6
5.4
5.4
166.0
169.0
168.8
24.9
25.9
25.6
reserves. Then three years later,
Venezuela doubled its reported re-
1987 31.0 1.4 48.8 47.1 91.9 5.3 166.6 25.0 serves by the inclusion of large
1988
1989
1990
92.2
92.2
92.2
4.0
4.0
4.0
92.9
92.9
92.9
100.0
100.0
100.0
91.9
91.9
91.9
5.2
5.2
5.0
167.0
170.0
257.5
56.3
58.1
59.1
amounts of long-known heavy oil
that had not previously been re-
1991
1992
1993
1994
92.2
92.2
92.2
92.2
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.3
92.9
92.9
92.9
89.3
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
94.5
94.0
94.0
94.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
257.5
257.9
258.7
258.7
59.1
62.7
63.3
64.5
ported. This led Iraq, Iran, Dubai,
Abu Dhabi and later Saudi Arabia to
retaliate with huge increases to
1995
1996
1997
1998
92.2
92.2
92.2
92.2
4.3
4.0
4.0
4.0
88.2
93.0
93.0
89.7
100.0
112.0
112.5
112.5
94.0
94.0
94.0
94.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
258.7
259.0
259.0
259.0
64.9
64.9
71.7
72.6
protect their quotas. Some revision
was called for, as the earlier
estimates were too low, having been
1999
2000
2001
92.2
92.2
92.2
4.0
4.0
4.0
89.7
89.7
89.7
112.5
112.5
112.5
94.0
94.0
94.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
261.0
259.2
259.3
72.6
76.9
77.7
inherited from the private
companies before they were
2002 92.2 4.0 89.7 112.5 94.0 5.0 259.3 77.8 expropriated. But the revisions,
Anomalous increase underlined. Note also implausible unchanged estimates.
whatever the right number might
be, have to be backdated to the discovery of the fields concerned, which had been made up to fifty years
before. In total about 300 billion barrels were added in this way during the late 1980s, greatly distorting
the apparent discovery record. It is noteworthy too that in several cases the reported reserves remain
implausibly unchanged for years on end despite production. It is staggering that such obviously flawed
information is recorded in the public database, substantially without comment or qualification.”
The following statement from the Outlook is explicit: “Reserves data from the main public sources are not
“backdated”. In other words, the historical time series of reserves for a given country is not revised in
light of new discoveries or increases in recovery rates”.
The need for proper back-dating has long been stressed by ASPO and figure 8 shows the backdated data
from reference [4].
Figure 8: Current trend of discovery according to
BP compared with backdated revisions.
Many analysts assume the estimates reported in the BP Statistical Review have at least the tacit blessing
of a knowledgeable and prestigious oil company. They do not, as footnotes in the publication make plain.