sectoral economic costs and benefits of ghg mitigation - IPCC
sectoral economic costs and benefits of ghg mitigation - IPCC
sectoral economic costs and benefits of ghg mitigation - IPCC
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Patrick Criqui, Nikos Kouvaritakis <strong>and</strong> Leo Schrattenholzer<br />
technology as well as its variance. Second it provides <strong>of</strong> course a full scale technology diffusion<br />
model with all the dem<strong>and</strong>, price <strong>and</strong> inter-technology competition effects already incorporated<br />
for the technologies identified in Table 4.<br />
Accordingly to the original design <strong>of</strong> the model, the diffusion <strong>of</strong> large scale power generation<br />
technologies is based on a capacity development module , with market shares <strong>of</strong> technologies<br />
depending <strong>of</strong> the anticipated relative <strong>costs</strong> <strong>of</strong> the electricity generated for different yearly<br />
capacity utilisation rates. Τhe diffusion <strong>of</strong> new <strong>and</strong> renewable technologies depends on their<br />
technical (or resource) potential by region <strong>and</strong> on their competitiveness, which in turn determines<br />
the <strong>economic</strong> potential <strong>and</strong> the diffusion rate, according to a Fisher-Pry type logistic diffusion<br />
model (see Diagram 3).<br />
Table 4<br />
Large scale <strong>and</strong> renewable technologies identified in the POLES model<br />
Large Scale Power Generation<br />
New <strong>and</strong> Renewable Technologies<br />
Advanced Thermodynamic Cycle ATC Waste Incineration CHP BF2<br />
Super Critical Pulverised Coal PFC Biomass Gasif. with Gas Turbines BGT<br />
Integrated Coal Gasif. Comb. Cycle ICG Combined Heat <strong>and</strong> Power CHP<br />
Coal Conventional Thermal CCT Photovoltaics (windows) DPV<br />
Lignite Conventional Thermal LCT Proton Exch. Membr. Fuel Cell (Fixed) MFC<br />
Large Hydro HYD Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (Fixed Cogen.) SFC<br />
Nuclear LWR NUC Rural Photovoltaics RPV<br />
New Nuclear Design NND Solar Thermal Powerplants SPP<br />
Gas Conventional Thermal GCT Small Hydro SHY<br />
Gas Turbines Combined Cycle GGT Wind Turbines WND<br />
Oil Conventional Thermal<br />
OCT<br />
Oil Fired Gas Turbines<br />
OGT<br />
Diagram 3<br />
New <strong>and</strong> renewable technology diffusion model<br />
Technical/Resource potential<br />
Economic potential Ta<br />
Diffusion Ta<br />
Economic potential Tb<br />
Diffusion Tb<br />
Ta = technology with high RoI<br />
Tb = Technology with medium RoI<br />
Time<br />
123
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