sectoral economic costs and benefits of ghg mitigation - IPCC

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Renewable Energy Important conclusions, based in the social production cost figures for the period 1981/87 are: ethanol is competitive with oil prices already in the range of US$ 21-25 per barrel and there is a falling cost trend. Figure 1 shows in a more transparent way the net social benefit of ethanol production in the Center-South region of Brazil. Results for the Northeast region are much less favorable but the share of ethanol produced there is lower than 20% of the total production. Table 3 shows that total accumulated social gains to ethanol production in Brazil, in the period 1978-1987 was -3.5 US$ billions (from which North - Northeast gain was -2.5 US$ billion) and the net present value in 1987 was -5.3 billion. 6 Case D – Impacts on Brazilian Reserves and Ethanol Production A recent publication (Moreira and Goldemberg, 1999) presents a table with data considering a formal microanalysis of the trade and exchange impacts of the alcohol program for the period 1975-1997. This issue was mentioned in Case C but that author did not make any quantitative evaluation. The result, shown in Figure 2, is very significant. Up to 1996 the total hard currency savings due to oil importation avoidance adds to 33 billion (1996 U$). Considering this trade deficit would imply in an increase in the external country debt and this debt should be renumerated at the current country international debt interest rate, total savings reach 50 billion. If values are taken only for the period 1975-1987, figures are 9.3 and 15 billion (historical value) respectively, overbidding the losses evaluated in Case C. Figure 2 Hard Currency Savings Due to the Consumption of Ethanol Fuel in Brazil 60000 50000 US$BILLION (Current Value) 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 YEAR Accummulated debt up the year (US$ Million of historical value) 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 Accummulated Value of Ethanol Fuel Consumed Up To the Year (US$ Million of 1996) Accummulated debt in the year (US$ Million of historical value) Value of Ethanol Fuel Consumed (US$ Million of Historical Value) Source: Moreira and Goldemberg, 1999 142
José R Moreira 7 Case E – Health Damage Costs and Energy Use To illustrate the growing importance of air pollution health costs as income rises, consider the implications for public health of a WEC projection (WEC, 1995) that the number of cars will increase 6-fold in developing countries between 1990 and 2020. Suppose, hypothetically, that all cars in developing countries are gasoline cars equipped with three-way catalytic converters (so that the emission rates are those presented in Table 4 for gasoline cars) and that average health impact costs are the simple average of those for urban and rural conditions for France (4.3 c per km) times (GDP/P/21,000), where GDP/P is the average per capita GDP in developing countries 1 which was $2600 in 1990 and is projected in the IIASA/WEC Reference Scenario (Nakicenovic et al, 1998) to be about $4000 in 2020. Thus, if the willingness to pay increases linearly with per capita GDP (e=1.0), the health costs from cars in developing countries would increase from $4.3 billion/yr in 1990 to $42 billion/yr in 2020, whereas if e=0.35, costs would increase from $17 billion/yr in 1990 to $123 billion/yr in 2020. These estimated health costs, though high, might prove to be underestimates of public health costs associated with air pollution from transportation. Table 4 Automotive NO X and PM Emissions and Associated Public Health Costs – A Case Study for France (a) Fuel and driving environment Fuel Emission Health Costs in US Dollars Economy Rate (g/km) Per gram Per km Per liter of fuel (km/l) NO X PM NO X PM NO X PM Total NO X PM Total Gasoline b Urban 8.7 0.68 0.017 0.022 2.75 0.015 0.047 0.062 0.13 0.41 0.54 Rural 10.3 0.79 0.015 0.027 0.188 0.021 0.003 0.024 0.22 0.03 0.25 Diesel Urban 10.4 0.75 0.174 0.022 2.75 0.017 0.479 0.496 0.17 4.98 5.15 Rural 12.7 0.62 0.150 0.027 0.188 0.017 0.028 0.045 0.21 0.36 0.57 (a) From Spadaro and Rabl (1998) and Spadaro et al. (1998). (b) For a gasoline internal combustion engine car equipped with a catalytic converter. In China, coal is the dominant source of energy, the use of coal is expected to grow rapidly in the decades immediately ahead, and effective pollution controls are not in wide use. A recent World Bank study (World Bank, 1997) assessing the costs of local/regional air pollution damages in China (mainly from coal) estimated total costs to be about $48 billion in 1995(7% of GDP), including impacts of acid deposition as well as health effects from outdoor and indoor pollution. The study found that the dominant cost was associated with the health impacts of air pollution on urban residents, some $32 billion in 1995 (5% of GDP). Moreover, the Bank projected that under "business-as-usual" conditions (with a 2.7-fold increase in coal consumption, 1995-2020) health damages to urban residents would increase to $98 billion by 2020, at current income levels, or $390 billion (13% of GDP) with adjustment for growth in income. (The estimated cost of health impacts increases with income because the World Bank estimated costs on the basis of the principle of "willingness to pay" to avoid adverse health impacts). If these costs were assigned to the fuels that cause the damage, the costs per GJ of fuel would tend to be greater than the market fuel prices. The health damage cost estimates are so high by 2020 that the value of carbon from fossil fuel consumption in China in 2020 (when CO 2 emissions from fossil fuel burning are expected to be 1.9 GtC, compared to 0.7 GtC in 1996) would have to be ~$ 200/tC for climate 1 The estimates in Table 4 are for France, where the per capita GDP (GDP/P) was 21,000 US dollars in 1995 – PPP basis. Thus in applying the results for France presented in Table 4 to developing countries in 1990, when GDP/P averaged about 2,600 US dollars, costs would be 0.12 times those estimated for France in 1995 if e=1.0 and 0.48 times those estimated for France if e= 0.35, when all other factors are equal. 143
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INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE
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Preface Preface Assessment of the s
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Contents Additional Submissions ♣
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PART I INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY 1
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Ogunlade Davidson I therefore urge
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Lenny Bernstein from mitigation mea
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Terry Barker, Lenny Bernstein, Ken
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Ulrich Bartsch and Benito Müller I
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Ulrich Bartsch and Benito Müller T
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Ulrich Bartsch and Benito Müller F
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Ulrich Bartsch and Benito Müller T
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Ulrich Bartsch and Benito Müller R
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Ulrich Bartsch and Benito Müller C
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Ron Knapp The top seven coal export
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Ron Knapp would impose on the US ec
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Ron Knapp "Because of the high carb
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Ron Knapp the adverse impact of Kyo
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Davoud Ghasemzadeh and Faten Alawad
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Jonathan Stern Discussion: Impact o
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Jonathan Stern Energy Research Inst
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Jonathan Stern “Hot Air” Finall
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Seth Dunn and Michael Renner Table
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Seth Dunn and Michael Renner Servic
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Seth Dunn and Michael Renner Figure
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Seth Dunn and Michael Renner Table
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Seth Dunn and Michael Renner Policy
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Jonathan Pershing Fossil Fuel Impli
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Jonathan Pershing Economic Models A
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Jonathan Pershing uneven, and that
Page 97 and 98: Jonathan Pershing global oversupply
Page 99 and 100: Jonathan Pershing Table 5 Oil Produ
Page 101 and 102: Jonathan Pershing The question of t
Page 103 and 104: Jonathan Pershing Gas demand will v
Page 105 and 106: Jonathan Pershing It is necessary t
Page 107 and 108: Jonathan Pershing According to the
Page 109 and 110: Jonathan Pershing (h) Countries who
Page 111 and 112: PART III RENEWABLE ENERGY 105
Page 113 and 114: Patrick Criqui, Nikos Kouvaritakis
Page 143 and 144: José R. Moreira Discussion: Biomas
Page 145 and 146: José R. Moreira 5 Case C - Social
Page 147: José R Moreira The results indicat
Page 151 and 152: José R Moreira When a project is u
Page 153 and 154: Garba G. Dieudonne Impacts of Mitig
Page 155 and 156: Garba G. Dieudonne SMALL-SCALL HYDR
Page 157 and 158: Garba G. Dieudonne Issues Associate
Page 159 and 160: Garba G. Dieudonne The us of renewa
Page 161 and 162: Garba G. Dieudonne cooperatives and
Page 163: Oliver Headley Table 1 Intense Hurr
Page 166 and 167: Renewable Energy Table 3 Examples o
Page 168 and 169: Renewable Energy Table 5 Comparison
Page 170 and 171: Transport Mitigating GHG Emissions
Page 172 and 173: Transport the two objectives is the
Page 174 and 175: Transport The rapid expansion in th
Page 176 and 177: Transport Altering the mix of vehic
Page 178 and 179: Transport in the 1990s. Railways, d
Page 180 and 181: Transport The Indian study conclude
Page 182 and 183: Transport Synergy between local and
Page 184 and 185: Transport Figure 6 Transport relate
Page 186 and 187: Transport Lack of technology data D
Page 188 and 189: Transport • 10% of the autoricksh
Page 190 and 191: Transport Categories vary in applic
Page 192 and 193: Transport innovative mechanisms suc
Page 194 and 195: Transport Clean Car Mandates: Tappi
Page 196 and 197: Transport Table 5 Tellus Institute
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Transport used cars with up to twen
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Transport for air pollution and noi
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Transport The first category has lo
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Transport Figure 4 New Light-Duty V
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Transport Figure 6 Regional Effects
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Transport There are significant dif
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Transport Figure 8 Net Energy Balan
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Transport As a last remark it is us
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PART V ENERGY INTENSIVE INDUSTRIES
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Energy Intensive Industries framewo
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Energy Intensive Industries intensi
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Energy Intensive Industries a reduc
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Energy Intensive Industries column,
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Energy Intensive Industries goods f
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Energy Intensive Industries The fin
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Energy Intensive Industries Costs a
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Energy Intensive Industries Environ
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Energy Intensive Industries Figure
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Energy Intensive Industries 13% to
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Energy Intensive Industries Costs a
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Energy Intensive Industries SANEA (
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Energy Intensive Industries In the
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Energy Intensive Industries SANEA 1
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Energy Intensive Industries energy
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Energy Intensive Industries Impacts
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Energy Intensive Industries Over th
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Energy Intensive Industries natural
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Energy Intensive Industries • The
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Energy Intensive Industries element
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Energy Intensive Industries (D) Alt
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Energy Intensive Industries the ass
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Households and Services Ancilliary
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Households and Services it is based
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Households and Services • Heating
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Households and Services Impact of G
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Households and Services This defini
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Households and Services operating c
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Households and Services 3.2 Technic
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Households and Services Tennant, T.
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PART VII PANEL DISCUSSION 270
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Panel Discussion In some sectors (p
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Appendix Appendix A Meeting Program
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Appendix 1030 Coffee/Tea 1100 Sessi
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Appendix Marc Darras Gaz de France,
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