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Annex 1
Baseline (BL)
The present trend of registration of vehicles adjusted with assumed attrition values for different
modes and penetration of energy efficient modes to continue in Delhi, and that modal split
pattern, occupancy/load factors and government policies will remain unchanged.
Against this BL, the following options have been considered for an objective evaluation taking
into consideration the various issues and recommendations identified by the project team in
consultation with the Steering Committee. However, the assumptions considered under each of
the alternate options are purely illustrative based on author’s judgement.
More buses (MB)
The city will have 10,000 public buses as on 1 st April 2001 as per Supreme Court (apex court in
India) directive. This would mean that aggressive policy measures are necessary to increase the
share of public buses in meeting the total travel demand from about 56% to 75% in 2001 and this
share would continue to remain the same in future.
Promote alternate fuel (AF)
The alternative fuels such as CNG, propane and electricity would be introduced in the city by
2001 and its penetration (in the absence of any time bound programme by the government) will
increase gradually according to the following assumptions:
• Entire bus fleet will run on CNG as per the Supreme Court directive,
• 25% of the autorickshaws will run on propane from 2001 and the share would increase 41%
in 2011,
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