sectoral economic costs and benefits of ghg mitigation - IPCC

More documents

Recommendations

Info

Fossil Fuels 3.2 Fossil Fuel Production and Demand Of paramount importance for the analysis of climate change policies is the level of fossil fuel supply and demand expected over the analysis horizon, as this is the single most important factor determining the extent of manmade greenhouse gas emissions. We will therefore show here projections of fossil fuel supplies over the next 25 years, developed with the simulation model. Table 2 Economic Growth Rates by Region Growth, Per Cent per Year 1995-2020 USA 2.1 JPN 1.8 EUM 2.0 ROE 1.9 ROO 2.0 EIT 3.4 CHN 4.7 IND 4.1 ANI 4.5 AOE 4.4 LAM 3.4 ROW 2.8 WORLD 2.5 3.2.1 Oil Supply and Demand The growth of fossil fuel production capacities in the model is largely determined exogenously. The production of fossil fuels uses intermediate inputs, labour, capital, and a fixed factor, which represents the resource and collects any resource rent contained in the producer prices. Fixed factor supplies increase at an exogenous rate, representing a given reserve depletion profile. Some price elasticity of supply exists, and therefore the model determines both quantities and prices endogenously. The production of conventional oil is inelastic, with a very limited response to price changes due to substitution of capital for resources. From the year 2010 onwards, conventional oil production is supplemented by the production of non-conventional oil, and oil products are supplemented by non-carbon fuel. Non-conventional oil is drawn into the global oil market once the price of conventional oil rises. The rate of production then reacts much more flexibly to demand than the production of conventional oil. The non-carbon fuel in the model is meant to be produced using non-carbon energy – i.e. wind, hydro, or photovoltaic electricity for hydrogen. Total conventional oil supply increases from 68.5m bl/d in 1995 to 90.2m in 2010, and 93.5m in 2020. In 2010, 1 m bl/d of non-conventional oil are produced, whereas non-carbon fuel production is 0.4m bl/d. By the end of the model horizon, 8.5m bl/d of non-conventional oil are produced, alongside 4.8m bl/d oil-equivalent of non-carbon fuel. It should be remembered that the model produces quantities and prices endogenously, given certain exogenous parameters. Figure 2 shows price projections for the three fossil fuels resulting from the interplay of supply and demand in CLIMOX. For the Business-as-Usual scenario, given our assumptions of the development of production capacity of conventional and nonconventional oil, and of non-carbon fuel, together with the economic growth produced in the 40
Ulrich Bartsch and Benito Müller model, demand and supply for oil are equated at the prices shown in the figure. CLIMOX therefore projects an increase in the price of oil from the base year 1995 by 11 per cent in 2010, and 33 per cent in 2020 in real terms. This means, taking an average price of oil in 1995 of $18 per barrel, the oil price reaches $20 per barrel in 2010, and $24 per barrel in 2020, in constant 1995 Dollar. Figure 1 Fossil Fuel Production, BaU, 1995-2020 (Thousand Barrel per Day Oil Equivalent) Oil, Coal, Gas Production (in '000 bl oe/d) '000 barrels oe/d 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 Oil COAL GAS 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Years Figure 2 Fossil Fuel Price Indices, BaU, 1995 = 1 Fossil Fuel Prices (1995 = 1) Price 1.40 1.30 1.20 1.10 1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 years Oil Coal Gas 41
Page 1 and 2: INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE
Page 3 and 4: Preface Preface Assessment of the s
Page 5 and 6: Contents Additional Submissions ♣
Page 7 and 8: PART I INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY 1
Page 9 and 10: Ogunlade Davidson I therefore urge
Page 11 and 12: Lenny Bernstein from mitigation mea
Page 13 and 14: Terry Barker, Lenny Bernstein, Ken
Page 43 and 44: Ulrich Bartsch and Benito Müller I
Page 45: Ulrich Bartsch and Benito Müller c
Page 49 and 50: Ulrich Bartsch and Benito Müller 5
Page 51 and 52: Ulrich Bartsch and Benito Müller T
Page 53 and 54: Ulrich Bartsch and Benito Müller F
Page 55 and 56: Ulrich Bartsch and Benito Müller T
Page 57 and 58: Ulrich Bartsch and Benito Müller R
Page 59 and 60: Ulrich Bartsch and Benito Müller C
Page 61 and 62: Ron Knapp The top seven coal export
Page 63 and 64: Ron Knapp would impose on the US ec
Page 65 and 66: Ron Knapp "Because of the high carb
Page 67 and 68: Ron Knapp the adverse impact of Kyo
Page 69 and 70: Davoud Ghasemzadeh and Faten Alawad
Page 75 and 76: Jonathan Stern Discussion: Impact o
Page 77 and 78: Jonathan Stern Energy Research Inst
Page 79 and 80: Jonathan Stern “Hot Air” Finall
Page 81 and 82: Seth Dunn and Michael Renner Table
Page 83 and 84: Seth Dunn and Michael Renner Servic
Page 85 and 86: Seth Dunn and Michael Renner Figure
Page 87 and 88: Seth Dunn and Michael Renner Table
Page 89 and 90: Seth Dunn and Michael Renner Policy
Page 91 and 92: Jonathan Pershing Fossil Fuel Impli
Page 93 and 94: Jonathan Pershing Economic Models A
Page 95 and 96: Jonathan Pershing uneven, and that
Page 97 and 98:
Jonathan Pershing global oversupply
Page 99 and 100:
Jonathan Pershing Table 5 Oil Produ
Page 101 and 102:
Jonathan Pershing The question of t
Page 103 and 104:
Jonathan Pershing Gas demand will v
Page 105 and 106:
Jonathan Pershing It is necessary t
Page 107 and 108:
Jonathan Pershing According to the
Page 109 and 110:
Jonathan Pershing (h) Countries who
Page 111 and 112:
PART III RENEWABLE ENERGY 105
Page 113 and 114:
Patrick Criqui, Nikos Kouvaritakis
Page 115 and 116:
Page 117 and 118:
Page 119 and 120:
Page 121 and 122:
Page 123 and 124:
Page 125 and 126:
Page 127 and 128:
Page 129 and 130:
Page 131 and 132:
Page 133 and 134:
Page 135 and 136:
Page 137 and 138:
Page 139 and 140:
Page 141 and 142:
Page 143 and 144:
José R. Moreira Discussion: Biomas
Page 145 and 146:
José R. Moreira 5 Case C - Social
Page 147 and 148:
José R Moreira The results indicat
Page 149 and 150:
José R Moreira 7 Case E - Health D
Page 151 and 152:
José R Moreira When a project is u
Page 153 and 154:
Garba G. Dieudonne Impacts of Mitig
Page 155 and 156:
Garba G. Dieudonne SMALL-SCALL HYDR
Page 157 and 158:
Garba G. Dieudonne Issues Associate
Page 159 and 160:
Garba G. Dieudonne The us of renewa
Page 161 and 162:
Garba G. Dieudonne cooperatives and
Page 163:
Oliver Headley Table 1 Intense Hurr
Page 166 and 167:
Renewable Energy Table 3 Examples o
Page 168 and 169:
Renewable Energy Table 5 Comparison
Page 170 and 171:
Transport Mitigating GHG Emissions
Page 172 and 173:
Transport the two objectives is the
Page 174 and 175:
Transport The rapid expansion in th
Page 176 and 177:
Transport Altering the mix of vehic
Page 178 and 179:
Transport in the 1990s. Railways, d
Page 180 and 181:
Transport The Indian study conclude
Page 182 and 183:
Transport Synergy between local and
Page 184 and 185:
Transport Figure 6 Transport relate
Page 186 and 187:
Transport Lack of technology data D
Page 188 and 189:
Transport • 10% of the autoricksh
Page 190 and 191:
Transport Categories vary in applic
Page 192 and 193:
Transport innovative mechanisms suc
Page 194 and 195:
Transport Clean Car Mandates: Tappi
Page 196 and 197:
Transport Table 5 Tellus Institute
Page 198 and 199:
Transport used cars with up to twen
Page 200 and 201:
Transport for air pollution and noi
Page 202 and 203:
Transport The first category has lo
Page 204 and 205:
Transport Figure 4 New Light-Duty V
Page 206 and 207:
Transport Figure 6 Regional Effects
Page 208 and 209:
Transport There are significant dif
Page 210 and 211:
Transport Figure 8 Net Energy Balan
Page 212 and 213:
Transport As a last remark it is us
Page 214 and 215:
PART V ENERGY INTENSIVE INDUSTRIES
Page 216 and 217:
Energy Intensive Industries framewo
Page 218 and 219:
Energy Intensive Industries intensi
Page 220 and 221:
Energy Intensive Industries a reduc
Page 222 and 223:
Energy Intensive Industries column,
Page 224 and 225:
Energy Intensive Industries goods f
Page 226 and 227:
Energy Intensive Industries The fin
Page 228 and 229:
Energy Intensive Industries Costs a
Page 230 and 231:
Energy Intensive Industries Environ
Page 232 and 233:
Energy Intensive Industries Figure
Page 234 and 235:
Energy Intensive Industries 13% to
Page 236 and 237:
Energy Intensive Industries Costs a
Page 238 and 239:
Energy Intensive Industries SANEA (
Page 240 and 241:
Energy Intensive Industries In the
Page 242 and 243:
Energy Intensive Industries SANEA 1
Page 244 and 245:
Energy Intensive Industries energy
Page 246 and 247:
Energy Intensive Industries Impacts
Page 248 and 249:
Energy Intensive Industries Over th
Page 250 and 251:
Energy Intensive Industries natural
Page 252 and 253:
Energy Intensive Industries • The
Page 254 and 255:
Energy Intensive Industries element
Page 256 and 257:
Energy Intensive Industries (D) Alt
Page 258 and 259:
Energy Intensive Industries the ass
Page 260 and 261:
Households and Services Ancilliary
Page 262 and 263:
Households and Services it is based
Page 264 and 265:
Households and Services • Heating
Page 266 and 267:
Households and Services Impact of G
Page 268 and 269:
Households and Services This defini
Page 270 and 271:
Households and Services operating c
Page 272 and 273:
Households and Services 3.2 Technic
Page 274 and 275:
Households and Services Tennant, T.
Page 276 and 277:
PART VII PANEL DISCUSSION 270
Page 278 and 279:
Panel Discussion In some sectors (p
Page 280 and 281:
Appendix Appendix A Meeting Program
Page 282 and 283:
Appendix 1030 Coffee/Tea 1100 Sessi
Page 284 and 285:
Appendix Marc Darras Gaz de France,
show all

sectoral economic costs and benefits of ghg mitigation - IPCC

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?