sectoral economic costs and benefits of ghg mitigation - IPCC

Renewable Energy
Table 6 World power generation by main technology
World 1990 2010 2030 1990 2010 2030
in TWh in %
Electricity Generation in TWh 12102 20837 40668 100 100 100
(y.a.g.r.) 2.8% 3.4%
Thermal 7551 13813 30940 62.4 66.3 76.1
of which:
Clean Coal 0 1495 12011 0.0 7.2 29.5
Gas Turbines 252 2983 9142 2.1 14.3 22.5
Biomass 124 353 484 1.0 1.7 1.2
Nuclear 2013 2466 3091 16.6 11.8 7.6
Hydro+Geoth 2140 3248 4745 17.7 15.6 11.7
Solar 1 5 15 0.0 0.0 0.0
Wind 4 121 648 0.0 0.6 1.6
Small Hydro 110 267 306 0.9 1.3 0.8
CHP 284 917 923 2.3 4.4 2.3
Source: POLES model
However unlike for the 2010 horizon, the scenario assumes a participation of non-Annex B
countries (broadly the developing world) in the climate change abatement process after 2020.
Given the increasing importance of these countries as contributors to global emissions, it
becomes clear that without their participation little meaningful impact would be possible on a
global scale. Furthermore, emission permit trade (an option specifically acknowledged in the
Kyoto Protocol) is assumed and extended to the whole world without distinction or limitation.
This assumption ensured that abatement is carried out “cost efficiently” and also that the results
obtained for the costs of meeting the target are free of “biases” introduced by the necessarily
arbitrary nature of permit endowments, negotiated more on political rather than economic
grounds.
The main assumptions of this scenario around which technological change is assessed in the
following sections are radically different from the Reference Case:
- for Annex B countries other than Eastern European countries, the Kyoto targets are
identically replicated for the period 2010-2030, i.e., countries are expected to reduce or limit
their emission growth between 2010 and 2030 by the same percentage as the Kyoto
stipulation for the period 1990-2010;
- for the countries in transition that are in Annex B, the 2030 target is assumed to be stability
at the 1990 level of emissions.
- as far as the rest of the World (non-Annex B) countries are concerned, for which the Kyoto
conference assigned no targets for 2010, it is assumed that emissions targets would become
operative only after 2020; these targets are assumed to ensure that world CO 2 emissions
(including those targeted for Annex B countries) would stabilise at some level between 2020
and 2030.
Using the POLES model, the stabilisation level after 2020 comes out for a level of 9.6 billion
tons of carbon; this translates into overall growth limitations to an increment of 43% for
Developing Asia and 56% for the Rest of the World for the period 2010 to 2030.
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