sectoral economic costs and benefits of ghg mitigation - IPCC

Renewable Energy
Table 7
Comparison of target and reference scenarios
Comparison of target and reference scenarios
(2030) World Investment costs Capacity
installed
Electricity
Production
Cumulative
Investment
Advanced Thermodynamic Cycle 13.6% -58.4% -56.1% -50.8%
Super Critical Coal 18.6% -70.2% -68.2% -64.2%
Integrated Coal Gasif. Comb. Cycle 7.9% -45.7% -48.7% -40.7%
Coal Conventional Thermal * 0.0% -42.3% -52.2%
Lignite Conventional Thermal * 0.0% -81.3% -85.1%
Large Hydro * 0.0% 4.0% 3.4%
Nuclear LWR * 0.0% 44.8% 44.7%
New Nuclear Design -7.3% 239.2% 236.4% 216.0%
Gas Conventional Thermal * 0.0% -13.8% -4.6%
Gas Turbines Combined Cycle 1.5% -4.5% 8.0% -1.7%
Oil Conventional Thermal * 0.0% -22.1% -38.3%
Oil Fired Gas Turbines 2.0% -50.0% -32.4% -53.5%
Waste Incineration CHP * 0.0% 109.2% 109.2% 165.0%
Biomass Gasif. with Gas Turbines -24.3% 221.0% 221.0% 197.3%
Combined Heat and Power -9.3% 66.0% 66.0% 60.6%
Photovoltaics (windows) -28.1% 416.9% 416.9% 229.3%
Proton Exch. Membr. Fuel Cell (Fixed) -4.1% 38.6% 38.6% 32.0%
Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (Fixed Cogen.) 0.0% 34.1% 34.1% 37.8%
Rural Photovoltaics * 0.0% 142.0% 142.0% 166.5%
Solar Thermal -15.6% 367.3% 367.3% 346.2%
Small Hydro -5.5% 58.9% 58.9% 141.0%
Wind -36.3% 1450.2% 1249.7% 858.0%
* Exogenous Technical Change
The key results of the “Kyoto II” scenario with endogenous technology can thus be highlighted
as follows:
- investment costs for non-fossil fuel technologies are markedly lower and conversely
investment costs for clean coal technologies display notably higher values; this is due both to
the re-direction of R&D activity and the learning by doing effects; in general the synergy of
carbon values affecting variable costs and the endogenous impacts on fixed costs introduce a
powerful new flexibility to the power generating sector in dealing with carbon dioxide
emission restrictions;
- installed capacity by 2030 reflects the carbon intensity and the fixed costs such as they are
discussed in the previous paragraph; otherwise the magnitude of the impact depends on the
growth that the technology experienced in the reference case: supercritical coal is most
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