sectoral economic costs and benefits of ghg mitigation - IPCC

Transport
Mitigating GHG Emissions from the Transport Sector in
Developing Nations: Synergy explored in urban air quality
programmes
Ranjan K. Bose
Introduction
The importance of transport energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions within the overall
energy scene has grown substantially in recent decades as the reductions in energy intensity 1 did
not keep pace with increasing transportation activity. This sector is of particular interest for two
reasons. First, global transportation energy demand is the fastest growing end-use category, and
has proven to be quite inelastic in its response to the energy price increases that prevailed in the
past (Grubler, et al., 1993). Secondly, it is the sector in which the impact of population growth on
natural resource consumption and the resulting emissions is perhaps the most indirect among all
energy demand categories. Access to, and ways of utilization of transport modes and associated
technologies instead are the key variables determining the levels of consumption and
environmental impacts.
The chapter on Mitigation Options in the Transportation sector in the Second Assessment Report
brought out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides an overview of
global trends in transportation activity, energy intensity and GHG emissions along with a
comprehensive review of economic, behavioral and technological options for reducing GHG
emissions from the transport sector (Michaelis et al., 1996). According to this report, global
energy use in the transport sector was estimated to be of 61– 65 exajoule (EJ) 2 in 1990 and is
projected to grow to 90–140 EJ in 2025 without new measures (IPCC, 1996). Projected energy
use in 2025 could be reduced by about a third to 60–100 EJ, through vehicles using very efficient
drive trains, lightweight construction, and low air-resistance design, without compromising
comfort and performance. Further energy-use reductions are possible through the use of smaller
vehicles, altered land-use patterns, transport systems, mobility patterns, and lifestyles and
shifting to less energy-intensive modes of transport. The report also suggests that GHG emissions
per unit of energy used could be reduced through the use of alternative fuels and electricity from
renewable sources. These measures, taken together, provide the opportunity for reducing global
transport energy-related GHG emissions by as much as 40% of the projected emissions by 2025.
Thus, the ability of energy technologies to reduce GHG emissions extends beyond energy
efficiency. In particular, technologies and fuels that produce energy with lower CO 2 emissions
are crucial if such emissions are to be reduced.
In 1995, the transport sector was responsible for about 26% of global final energy consumption
and 20% of CO 2 emissions from fossil-fuel use (IEA, 1998). The important points that
characterize the most rapidly growing sector in terms of energy consumption and related carbon
emissions are as follows: (1) The transport sector is projected to be the major source for oil
demand growth, with oil demand for transport in non-OECD countries expected to grow on an
average by 3.6% per annum compared to 1.5% in OECD countries between 1995 and 2020 (IEA,
1998); (2) Worldwide, road transport claims a substantial share (roughly 73% in 1996) of the
total transport final energy consumption followed by air traffic (12%), rail and water transport
together (15%) (IEA, 1999); (3) Much of the expected rapid growth of motor vehicles is likely to
occur in the developing countries of Asia and Eastern Europe. For example, a tripling of the
1 A measure of the energy productivity of how transportation technologies are used.
2 1 EJ = 10 18 joule
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