sectoral economic costs and benefits of ghg mitigation - IPCC

Transport
The Indian study concluded that abatement costs for transport were high relative to options
available in other sectors, and projected little change in transport for emissions constraints less
than a 20% reduction from the baseline. In the 20% reduction case, use of diesel in transport was
reduced by a shift to more fuel-efficient trucks. The Bangladesh study, using a different
methodology concluded that a wide array of near term technology options had no net cost, but
that the cost of 4-stroke engines for 3-wheeled vehicles fell between $48 and $334 per tonne of
carbon, depending upon the application. Both India and the Bangladesh country-studies
recommend increasing use of efficient 4-stroke motorcycles and efficient (diesel) trucks because
the increased cost of the efficient vehicles would be recovered by the greater use of these
vehicles.
Table 2
Average cost of carbon abatement using CERI curves ($/tC)
Description India 1 Bangladesh Thailand
Year of constant ($) 1990 1990 1988
Discount rate 12% 8% 10%
Cumulative CO 2 mitigation - all sectors together
BL: 5% to 20% abatement 1.27 to 12.39 44.00 to 326.33 -
HE/LC 2 : 5% to 20% abatement -12.10 to 4.75 -58.67 to 14.67 -
Annual CO 2 mitigation in 2020 - all sectors together
BL: 10% to 35% abatement - - -5.60 to 370.96
BL: reducing yearly CO 2 growth rate - - -67.57 to 623.03
from 0.5% to 2% in 2010
Cumulative CO 2 mitigation - transport sector
BL: 5% to 20% abatement - 36.66 to 220.00 -
BL: 4-stroke vehicles: 5% to 20% - 47.67 to 333.67 -
BL: Lean burn engine - - -509.67
1 Abatement costs derived from the model are on the low side. Abatement occurs in the period 2010-2020
and is discounted to present values using a high discount rate of 12%.
2
High efficiency/low carbon
In the Thailand and Republic of Korea country-study, the major recommendation has been to
retrofit old vehicles with lean-burn engines. The Republic of Korea study also emphasizes new
technologies with weight reduction and continuously variable transmission. The Thailand study
found that retrofitting older vehicles with lean-burn engines would improve efficiency by 20% at
a negative net cost of $510 per tonne of carbon, making it ‘no-regret’ options.
Several important mitigation options in the transport sector could not be modeled for India,
Bangladesh and Republic of Korea due to model limitation. Each of these country studies has
analyzed in detail a wide range of technical measures in the transport sector wherein vehicles and
fuels can be made less polluting. These measures can be grouped as follows: vehicle retrofitting,
emission standards and inspection programmes, fuel quality improvements, use of alternative
fuels like CNG, LPG and electricity, modal shift (road to rail and road to water), introduction of
advanced auto technologies and dedicated bus lanes.
Technology comparisons for cost of carbon abatement
A number of no-regret options with negative abatement costs were found in the transport sector
based on a pair-wise comparison for India, Bangladesh and Korea (Table 3). The mitigation
options were compared to the baseline option. For instance, for CO 2 emissions reduction from
CNG car, the baseline option considered is a conventional gasoline car. Similarly, for a 4-stroke
(two-wheeler) for CO 2 emissions reduction, the baseline option is a 2-stroke (two-wheeler)
technology, and so on.
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