sectoral economic costs and benefits of ghg mitigation - IPCC

Patrick Criqui, Nikos Kouvaritakis and Leo Schrattenholzer
Table 5
The world energy system to 2030 in the Reference Case
POLES - REFERENCE
y.a.g.r.
WORLD 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2000-30
Population Million 5 249 6 150 7 027 7 893 8 713 1.2
Per capita GDP 90$/cap 5 217 5 714 7 142 8 862 10 732 + 2.1
GDP G$90PPP 27 383 35 138 50 187 69 945 93 514 = 3.3
Energy intensity of GDP toe/M$90 313 266 229 209 192 + -1.1
Primary energy Mtoe 8 338 9 359 11 517 14 639 17 944 = 2.2
Carb intensity of energy tC/toe 0.70 0.69 0.71 0.73 0.75 + 0.3
CO2 Emissions MtC 5 863 6 443 8 188 10 692 13 411 = 2.5
Primary Energy Supply Mtoe
Solids 2 205 2 206 2 997 4 160 5 528 3.1
Oil 3 246 3 664 4 303 5 133 6 033 1.7
Gas 1 703 2 085 2 710 3 657 4 484 2.6
Others 1 183 1 404 1 507 1 689 1 900 1.0
of which
Nuclear 433 602 623 687 759 0.8
Hydro+Geoth 184 224 279 341 408 2.0
Trad.Biomass 412 401 340 291 251 -1.6
Other Renewables 155 177 265 370 481 3.4
World Oil Price $90/bl 23.8 11.1 19.1 25.0 30.3 3.4
Source: POLES model
Technologies for power generation in the reference case
The level of detail in the model also allows to have a closer look at final energy demand,
particularly as concerns electricity, and at the power generation technology mix. As described in
Table 9, world electricity production increases in pace with GDP, i.e. at a much higher growth
rate than total energy consumption. This corresponds to a continuously growing demand for
clean and flexible energy at end-use level.
However, according to our scenario, an increasing part of electricity demand will be satisfied by
fossil fuel generation. Due to the slow increase in nuclear production and to the limited
contribution of renewables, power generation from thermal technologies may rise from about
two-thirds to three-fourths of total world electricity production in 2030. This does not mean
however that there will be no technological change in the power generation sector. The
Reference Case projects a very strong development for two “technology clusters” that emerged in
the early nineties: Gas Turbines in Combined Cycle and Clean Coal Technologies.
As illustrated in Table 9, about half of total power generation in 2030 would originate from these
new technologies, respectively 30 % from Clean Coal and 20 % from Gas Turbines. In the
framework of hypotheses adopted for this projection − i.e. rapid economic growth, moderate
availability of hydrocarbons, unresolved crisis in nuclear power and no CO 2 emission constraints
− the “winning” technologies in terms of quantitative development would thus be the new fossilfuel
based power generation technologies, Gas Turbines and particularly the cluster of “Clean
Coal” technologies, which only recently experienced its first developments on “niche markets”.
The carbon constraint: designing a Kyoto II emission scenario for the 2030 horizon
In order to provide a full set of hypotheses for the analysis of the impacts of CO 2 constraints, it is
now necessary to define a post-Kyoto or long term (2030) abatement scenario. This implies to
define the quantity of greenhouse gases that each main component of the world energy system
may be allowed to emit. For the purposes of this scenario, it was assumed that the Kyoto targets
are achieved for the period to 2010 and that they are repeated to the 2030 horizon. This is why
the scenario may be defined as a “Kyoto II” scenario.
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