sectoral economic costs and benefits of ghg mitigation - IPCC

Seth Dunn and Michael Renner
Figure 4. U.S. Coal Mining, Output and Jobs, 1958-98
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Source: DOE, Dept. of Labor
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4 Reducing Emissions, Increasing Employment
One obstacle to implementing climate policy has been the opposition of labor unions concerned
about potential membership losses. The AFL-CIO Executive Council, for example, issued a
statement in February 1999 reaffirming its position to the Kyoto Protocol, arguing that it “could
have a devastating impact on the U.S. economy and American workers.” But even in the absence
of climate policy, the number of jobs in many of these industries is already declining, often even
as output continues to rise. Avoiding or postponing an environmental policy will do little to save
these jobs; workers may be better served by participating constructively in climate mitigation
debates.
The coal sector is a case in point, although similar stories could be told about oil refining,
utilities, and energy-intensive industries such as primary metals and steel. Around the world, the
coal industry’s shrinking profits and growing deficits are leading to cost-cutting practices that
translate into lower prices but also fewer jobs. This trend could well continue: world coal
consumption has fallen 5.3 percent since 1997, and is now at its lowest point since 1987. (See
Figure 3.)
Like other sunset industries, the coal sector is increasingly characterized by bigger and fewer
companies, larger equipment, and less labor-intensive operations. Worldwide, it is estimated that
only about 10 million jobs remain, accounting for just one third of 1 percent of the global work
force. In the United States, coal production increased 35 percent between 1980 and 1998, but
coal mining employment declined 63 percent, from 242,000 to 90,000 workers. (See Figure 4.)
In Europe, jobs in this field have dropped even more, since production is falling substantially. In
Germany, productivity gains and rising coal imports are projected to cut employment from
265,000 in 1991 to less than 80,000 by 2020. British coal production has fallen to less than half
its 1980 level, and employment has dropped from 224,000 to just 10,000 miners. In South Africa,
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