sectoral economic costs and benefits of ghg mitigation - IPCC

Dave Cahn, Dale Louda and Michael Nisbe
Why the demand for cement will increase worldwide
Current worldwide cement production is 1.5 billion tons annually. This number will only rise in
the next several decades because housing built out of concrete has proven to be more energy
efficient than other conventional construction materials, constant infrastructure improvements are
necessary, and the appetite for new construction in developing countries, particularly the least
developed, will actually accelerate.
(A) Homes
Concrete home construction will significantly increase over the next decades because of its
greater efficiency, durability, decreased environmental degradation, and inherent simplicity. As
demonstrated by the Partnership for Advancing Technology in Housing (PATH) initiative,
concrete homes can be significantly more energy efficient than non-concrete ones. This is largely
due to advances in home construction methods, which allow the use of insulated concrete forms
in the construction process. Concrete homes also help the environment by conserving forest
acreage that would otherwise be consumed to produce wood for home construction.
(B) Infrastructure Improvements
Constant improvements in the infrastructure in the United States necessitate more cement. Water
and sewage systems, highways, and bridges are all in need of periodic repair and occasional
replacement.
(C) Concrete in the Developing World
Concrete use will be pivotal for a country to make the transition to the developed world.
Concrete for office buildings, roads, highways, and other infrastructure projects will remain a
key to continued economic development in all nations. In fact, the Kyoto Protocol envisions just
such a system developing through the Clean Development Mechanism. A primary tenet of the
Protocol is that non-industrialized nations must be allowed to continue their economic
development toward industrial and post-industrial societies. Even if some remarkable
breakthrough enters the marketplace concerning an alternate means of propelling automobiles,
some surface will be necessary for them to move about. The automobile, however powered, will
almost certainly remain the primary mode of transportation the world over far into the next
century.
As worldwide economic development increases, the demand for portland cement will increase.
Production demands will have to be met - whether by US producers or those overseas.
Why developing countries must participate in any greenhouse gas emissions reduction
effort
The global demand for portland cement will not diminish over the next 100 years. Unless and
until a suitable substitute for concrete is invented, cement will need to be produced somewhere.
Failing to include non-industrialized countries in any comprehensive plan to reduce CO 2
emissions will yield no environmental benefit for the worldwide cement industry. The
industrialized nations could see a loss of jobs, the closure of plants, and the attendant national
security concerns.
(A) Lack of Environmental Benefit
Cement plants in Europe, Japan, and the United States are technically advanced and energyefficient.
If countries like these are unable to increase domestic capacity to meet demand, cement
will have to be imported from developing countries. The result would be to relocate cement and
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