sectoral economic costs and benefits of ghg mitigation - IPCC

Ulrich Bartsch and Benito Müller
Table 3
Changes in the Demand for Fuels, million bl/d oe
Year Change in mbl/d oe
Conventional Oil 2010 -2.1
2020 -1.2
Non-conventional Oil 2010 -1.0
2020 -4.2
Total Oil 2010 -3.0
2020 -5.3
Non-carbon fuel 2010 2.7
2020 4.7
Oil Products 2010 -0.4
2020 -0.6
Coal 2010 -4.4
2020 -4.4
Gas 2010 -4.0
2020 -4.8
Energy Intensive and Other Industries account for three quarters of total coal demand. The
reduction in the projected increase in coal demand in the two sectors adds up to 3.2 mbl/d and 3
mbl/d oil equivalent in 2010 and 2020, with total reductions of 4.4 mbl/d for both periods, as
shown in Table 4. There is no ‘leakage’ from coal, as non-Annex I countries reduce coal use as
opposed to oil use. The price response of coal is projected to be very small, and international
mobility of coal is limited. This means non-Annex I countries substitute oil for coal as oil prices
respond much more strongly. The total reduction of coal use is smaller than in the case of oil,
because of the lack of a direct non-carbon competitor to coal, and the differential impact of
increases in the user prices of coal and oil due to carbon permits or taxes.
Table 4
Changes in the Demand for Fossil Fuels by Economic Sector, Total and Annex I
Region, in million bl/d oe.
Total
Sector Electr. Energy Int. Other Ind. Transp. + HHD Other Total
Liquid Fuels 2010 0.5 0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4
2020 0.5 0.1 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.6
Coal 2010 -2.5 -0.8 -0.1 -0.1 -0.9 -4.4
2020 -2.3 -0.8 -0.1 -0.2 -1.0 -4.4
Gas 2010 -0.9 -2.1 -0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -4.0
2020 -1.2 -2.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.8 -4.8
Annex I
Sector Electr. Energy Int. Other Ind. Transp. + HHD Other Total
Liquid Fuels 2010 0.4 -0.3 -0.5 -0.8 -0.6 -1.8
2020 0.3 -0.5 -0.7 -1.2 -0.9 -3.0
Coal 2010 -2.3 -0.7 -0.1 -0.1 -0.9 -4.2
2020 -2.2 -0.7 -0.1 -0.2 -1.0 -4.1
Gas 2010 -0.8 -2.2 -0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -4.2
2020 -1.3 -2.8 -0.5 -0.2 -0.9 -5.7
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