sectoral economic costs and benefits of ghg mitigation - IPCC

Jonathan Stern
“Hot Air”
Finally, a few words on the subject of “hot air” – a concept much discussed in the climate
literature but which has little resonance in countries such as Russia. It may not be well-known
that a majority of Russians involved in this area of research and policy are hostile to the concept
of “hot air”. 1 To the extent they acknowledge its legitimacy, many (perhaps even most) believe
that it is their “right” to claim full credit for emission reductions which have occurred since 1990
and that it will be a major and much-needed source of revenue. Engaging Russia (and other EITs
such as Ukraine) on compromises in this area will be an extremely important task, both in terms
of formal ratification of the Kyoto protocol and the establishment of a meaningful trading
regime. It may not be wise to take such compromises for granted.
1 Chritiaan Vrolijk and Tobias Koch, Russian Energy Prospects and the Implications for Emissions and
Climate Policy, Royal Institute of International Affairs, Energy and Environmental Programme Briefing
Paper, November 1999.
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