sectoral economic costs and benefits of ghg mitigation - IPCC
sectoral economic costs and benefits of ghg mitigation - IPCC
sectoral economic costs and benefits of ghg mitigation - IPCC
You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles
YUMPU automatically turns print PDFs into web optimized ePapers that Google loves.
Transport<br />
the two objectives is then provided <strong>and</strong> suggestions <strong>of</strong>fered on how local programmes need to be<br />
modified if credited with 'collateral' global <strong>benefits</strong>. Finally, the challenges <strong>and</strong> opportunities<br />
faced by any developing nation to exploit the potential <strong>of</strong> energy technologies to address global<br />
warming are discussed with particular reference to the transportation sector.<br />
Regional differences<br />
Figure 1 shows the growth in transportation energy dem<strong>and</strong> (excluding electricity) across<br />
different regions in the world from 1971 to 2020 as estimated by the International Energy<br />
Agency (IEA, 1998). According to the IEA estimate, over 95% <strong>of</strong> the world transportation<br />
energy-use comes from petroleum-derived fuels. Worldwide oil dem<strong>and</strong> is projected to increase<br />
by 1940 million tonnes <strong>of</strong> oil equivalent (mtoe) between 1995 <strong>and</strong> 2020; <strong>of</strong> this growth, 59% will<br />
come from the transport sector, 25% from the stationary sectors, 6% from the power generation<br />
<strong>and</strong> the remainder from other energy conversion industries. Between the period 1995 <strong>and</strong> 2020,<br />
the transport energy dem<strong>and</strong> in non-OECD regions is projected to grow at a much higher rate<br />
(3.6% per annum) compared to the OECD regions (1.5%). During the same period, the highest<br />
annual rate <strong>of</strong> growth is transport energy dem<strong>and</strong> is projected for China 5.1%, followed by East<br />
Asia 4.9%, <strong>and</strong> then South Asia 4.5%. Despite the higher growth in Asian region, oil dem<strong>and</strong> in<br />
the transport sector in non-OECD regions is still projected to increase to 1179 mtoe compared to<br />
1440 mtoe in the OECD regions (IEA, 1998).<br />
Figure 1<br />
Transport energy dem<strong>and</strong> across regions (mtoe)<br />
million tonnes <strong>of</strong> oil equivalent<br />
900<br />
800<br />
700<br />
600<br />
500<br />
400<br />
North America<br />
Europe<br />
Pacific<br />
East Asia<br />
South Asia<br />
Latin America<br />
China<br />
300<br />
200<br />
100<br />
0<br />
1971 1995 2010 2020<br />
The total transport related CO 2 emissions in non-OECD regions are likely to grow at the rate <strong>of</strong><br />
3.6% per annum from 1995 to 2020 compared to 1.5% in OECD regions. Figure 2 shows the<br />
transport-related CO 2 emissions due to transportation activity across regions.<br />
166
Change language