sectoral economic costs and benefits of ghg mitigation - IPCC

Ranjan K. Bose
vehicle fleet is estimated for China in the decade 1990 to 2000. Similarly, in India, over two-fold
increase in vehicle fleet is estimated during the same period – from 21 million to 43 million
(Faiz, et al., 1990). In contrast, much of the demand for motor vehicles in the developed
countries will be for vehicle replacement; and (4) Globally, transport-related CO 2 emissions
could rise between 40% and 100% by 2025 (Moreno and Skea, 1996).
The growth of road-based transportation system is the central problem, especially in urban areas
of developing economies. In the developing economies, these systems compared to those in the
developed ones are characterized by the following factors: (1) Much lower levels of
motorization, 1 (2) more rapid rates of economic growth, population growth, and the growth in
number of motor vehicles, (3) higher population densities, (4) much lower per capita energy
consumption and emissions of carbon dioxide, and (5) reduced access to capital and to advanced
environmental technologies. Despite the far greater level of vehicle ownership, higher rate of trip
generation and increased use of energy on a per capita basis in cities of the developed countries,
it is the cities in the developing countries that, in general, suffer most from growing
environmental degradation. In cities of developing economies, there has been a rapid explosion
of ownership and utilization of private vehicles (scooters, motorbikes, autorickshaws and cars).
Growing motorization coupled with limited road space, absence of an appropriate road traffic
reduction strategy on major corridors, an ageing and ill-maintained vehicle stock, a sizeable share
of two-stroke engine technologies, absence of an efficient public transport system, poor
conditions for pedestrians and cyclists, inadequate separation between working and living space
and moving space, and lower fuel quality, have all led to traffic congestion resulting in longer
travel time, discomfort to road users, extra fuel consumption, high level pollution and GHG
emissions. Further, due to the adverse effects on health largely resulting from pollutant emissions
due to transportation activity, reduction of air pollution is an emerging priority in cities of
developing countries over global climate change. In view of this, the basic question is to what
extent there is a synergy in the solutions to urban air pollution and global warming problems.
The paper makes an attempt to answer how air pollution control programmes – as experienced in
the cities of developing countries – could be modified by taking into consideration global climate
change concerns. More specifically, the paper addresses the following questions in relation to the
carbon mitigation options in the transport sector in developing nations:
• How should a synergy be arrived at between global and local environmental agenda?
• What is the kind of policy framework that needs to be adopted to conserve energy-use and
reduce emissions of local air pollutants and CO 2 ?
• What ranges of energy-efficient and low-carbon energy supply options should be considered
for mitigating emissions?
• What are the likely associated costs and benefits in the next 15–20 years?
• What policy instruments are necessary for implementation of energy-efficient and
environment-friendly projects?
The next section provides a broad overview of the historic and future trends of transport energy
demand and related CO 2 emissions, and regional differences in level of motorization in the
OECD and non-OECD regions. Then a generic policy framework is presented that needs to be
adopted in any country to simultaneously reduce urban air pollution problems and global
warming problems. A review of the technological potential to cost-effectively increase energy
efficiency in transport and thereby reduce GHG emissions in developing and industrialized
countries of Asia is provided. The locally motivated vehicular emission control programmes for
Mexico City, Santiago and Delhi have been reviewed while explaining how the goals pursued
differ from those relating to the global climate change agenda. A synergy in solutions between
1 The level of motorization is measured as the growth in ownership and use of motorized vehicles.
165