sectoral economic costs and benefits of ghg mitigation - IPCC

Oliver Headley
Table 1 Intense Hurricanes since "Gilbert" of 1988
Year Name Maximum Sustained Wind
Speed
Central
Pressure
(Millibars)
Category,
Saffir-Simpson
Scale
Damage
Estimate
(US$ )
knots mph kph
1988 Gilbert 160 184 296 888 5 5.0 billion
1988 Hélène 125 144 232 938 4
1988 Joan 125 144 232 932 4
1989 Gabrielle 125 144 232 941 4
1989 Hugo 140 161 259 918 5 3.0 billion
1991 Claudette 115 132 212 956 4
1992 Andrew 135 155 249 922 5 26.0 billion
1995 Felix 120 138 222 929 4
1995 Luis 130 150 241 940 4
1995 Opal 130 150 241 919 4
1996 Edouard 125 144 232 933 4
1996 Hortense 120 138 222 935 4
1998 Georges 135 155 249 937 5 0.86 billion
1998 Mitch 155 178 286 905 5 5.9 billion
1999 Bret 122 140 225 944 4
1999 Cindy 122 140 225 944 4
1999 Floyd 134 154 248 927 4 0.5 billion
1999 Gert 131 150 241 930 4
1999 Lenny 135 155 241 933 4 1.0 billion
Because of their diminutive size, small island developing states (SIDS) are particularly
vulnerable to environmental disasters, some of which are the direct result of global warming.
When natural disasters show disturbing trends which threaten our very existence, we need to
consider the possibility that human activity may be responsible for this unwelcome phenomenon.
According to the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, 1999), the
1999 season had twelve named tropical cyclones - four tropical storms and eight hurricanes. This
compares with the long term average of 10 named tropical cyclones - 4 tropical storms and 6
hurricanes. Five of these hurricanes were major, all five reached category 4 status (minimum
wind speed 131 mph).This is the highest number of category 4 hurricanes in a single season
since records began in 1886. The total activity over the years 1995 - 1999 of 41 hurricanes
and 20 major hurricanes (category 3 or greater on the Saffir-Simpson scale) is also
unprecedented. During the 35 days between August 19 and September 23, 1998, ten cyclones of
different intensities hit land in the Caribbean. On September 25, four hurricanes were active at
the same time, a rare event that happened for the first time in the century.
It is therefore no wonder that insurance companies consider SIDS in regions which are
susceptible to cyclones to be a bad risk. The cyclone problem is compounded by the fact that
many SIDS are low lying, thus the highest point in the Maldive Islands is only 3.5 metres above
sea level and a large fraction of their land area has an elevation of 1 to 2 metres. Since the
category 5 hurricane Andrew of 1992 had a storm surge of 6 metres, one can see that the whole
of the Maldives would be swamped in an encounter with such a cyclone. Floods which result
from the torrential rain which often accompanies hurricanes are also a major cause of damage; in
two days, Hurricane Mitch produced over 1250 mm of rain in Honduras, i.e. some places
received a year’s rain in two days. The resulting floods caused serious loss of life, destroyed 70%
of the country’s bridges and caused massive damage to the rest of the infrastructure.
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