sectoral economic costs and benefits of ghg mitigation - IPCC

Seth Dunn
3 An Integrated Approach to Transport GHG Mitigation
One of the central findings of a 1997 Worldwatch assessment of climate mitigation policies in
industrial nations was that there is no “magic bullet:” only a combination of mutually-reinforcing
measures will be effective in inducing sustained emissions reductions. This is particularly true in
the transportation sector, where in several nations low fuel prices have encouraged greater
vehicular travel, diminishing the impact of fuel economy standards. But the need for
strengthening these standards, and for adding clean vehicle mandates, remains, given the
prominence of the automobile in the transport sector’s 21 percent share of carbon emissions.
However, measures to restrict demand for automobile use, including fuel price reform as well as
land use policies that facilitate the use of alternatives to the automobile, are also necessary. This
section focuses on the importance of integrating fuel economy standards, clean car mandates, and
land use policies into a transport sector GHG mitigation strategy, drawing primarily on the U.S.
experience.
Boosting Fuel Economy Standards
Standards established in the 1970s improved energy efficiency markedly during the 1980s, but
governments have generally not strengthened them since - leading to a decline in fuel economy
in the 1990s. In the absence of new standards, emissions from road transport are projected to
double, with much of the increase occurring in developing countries. According to the IPCC’s
1996 Technical Paper, higher fuel economy could cut this projected amount by as much as a
quarter.
The only binding auto efficiency standards in place among industrial countries today are in the
United States, where they have remained flat since 1985 (See Table 3).
Table 3 Automobile Fuel Efficiency Targets, Selected Countries, 1997
Country Current avg. Target Percent improvement Timeline
(L/100 km) (L/100km)
Australia 11.0 8.2 - 2000
Canada n/a 8.6 - 1985
France 8.0 5.8 - 2005
Germany 9.2 - 25 2005
Japan 11.9 7.4 - 2000
U.K. 9.0 - 10 2010
U.S. 8.6 8.6 - 1985
Source: Flavin and Dunn.
Enacted in 1978 and gradually raised to 8.6 liters per 100 kilometers in 1985, these standards
nearly doubled the fuel economy of new U.S. cars between 1974 and 1988 but have since
remained essentially flat. Meanwhile, the average fuel economy of new vehicles has actually
fallen, due partly to the booming popularity of sport-utility vehicles.
Because of industry resistance to binding standards, the only fuel economy targets enacted in
recent years have been weak voluntary goals. Twelve countries that have done so call for, on
average, a 10 percent efficiency improvement over 10 years, requiring little more than what
manufacturers are already planning. In 1997 the European Commission proposed more ambitious
fuel economy standards, of 5 liters per 100 kilometers for gasoline-fueled cars and 4.5 liters per
100 kilometers for diesel cars by the year 2005, compared to the current average of 8 L/100 km.
187