sectoral economic costs and benefits of ghg mitigation - IPCC

Fossil Fuels
Table 2 International Energy Agency Business as Usual Gas Demand Projections (Bcm)
1995 2010 2020 1995-2020 Annual
Growth Rate
OECD 949.8 1329.5 1433.4 1.7%
North America 575.9 704.6 676.2 0.6%
Europe 301.3 506.1 625.2 3.0%
Pacific 72.7 118.8 132.0 2.4%
Non-OECD 860.6 1391.6 2034.9 3.5%
EIT 498.3 646.7 835.2 2.1%
Africa 39.2 70.5 102.2 3.9%
China 16.7 56.6 80.7 6.5%
East Asia 75.8 178.8 289.5 5.5%
South Asia 33.7 89.9 160.4 6.4%
Latin America 92.7 185.1 306.0 4.9%
Middle East 104.3 164.2 261.0 3.7%
WORLD 1810.4 2721.1 3468.3 2.6%
Model Result below BAU (Kyoto)* (-230) (-280)
*taken from Bartsch/Müller model.
Source: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 1998 Edition, Paris: OECD, 1998, Table 8.1,
p.124.
Table 2 also compares these projections with the gas demand reduction projections from the
Bartsch/Müller model (the differences between IEA gas demand projections and the
Bartsch/Müller projections for 2020 are not substantial). The required reductions are not
substantial: 8.5% for 2010 and 8.1% for 2020, in comparison to 1995. It is relatively easy to see
that these could be achieved by reductions in demand, possibly in North America, and certainly
in Russia, Ukraine and other former Soviet republics. The problem may be that the IEA and the
Bartsch/Müller projections are overly cautious in respect of two countries where gas has thus far
played a minor role – China and India.
Table 3 Natural Gas Demand Projections for China and India (Bcm)
1998 2010 2020
China 22 (2) 96 (6) 204 (10)
India 27 (11) 52 95
TOTAL 44 148 299
Sources: China Energy Research Institute; US Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration,
International Energy Outlook 1998, Washington DC, April 1998.
Table 3 gives gas demand projections for China and India using sources which give much higher
figures than those in Table 2. The figures for China in particular assume that by 2020 natural gas
will comprise 10% of Chinese primary energy demand (compared with less than 2% in 1998).
However, in order to reach these demand figures a pipeline and liquified natural gas
infrastructure of colossal proportions will need to be built in both these countries requiring
investments of tens of billions of dollars. For this reason, the IEA projection of 81 Bcm of gas
demand by 2020 appears modest, compared with the China Energy Research Institute of 204
Bcm, but even this lower figure will require a major infrastructural and financial commitment
from investors and the Chinese government.
The drive behind introducing natural gas into the Chinese and Indian energy economies is to
improve local air quality, particularly in cities, where urban pollution from unrestricted coal
burning is having a serious impact on human health. Reaching the immensely ambitious Chinese
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